每日新闻更新 - 俄罗斯和俄罗斯天然气公司Gazprom The Daily Update - Russia and Gazprom

9月22日惠誉宣布对俄罗斯长期外债评级定为BBB-,将其前景由“稳定”上调为“积极”。

惠誉指出上调俄罗斯前景的原因之一是俄罗斯浮动汇率支持下的政策框架得到改善、实现通胀目标的郑重承诺、谨慎的财政政策以及最近通过的预算规则。该预算规则采用了每桶40美元的保守石油价格,超出预算的收入将用来重建俄国财政缓冲。外部位置以及财政状况都很强健,惠誉推测俄罗斯的对外净资产位置为良性的28%,经济环境得到改善:惠誉预测俄罗斯在2017年的GDP增速为2%,2017/2018为2.1%。尽管普京尚未确认其候选人资格,但预计将会在2018年3月参选再任一届总统。

惠誉评级假定欧盟和美国制裁会长期存在。美国国会最近将对俄罗斯的制裁写入法律,这让制裁的移除更加复杂化,因为需要先获得国会的批准。地缘政治紧张局势和/或制裁,加之宏观经济发展政策框架疲软以及国际外汇储备减少,这都对俄罗斯前景构成了潜在威胁。

俄罗斯一直都很擅长从亚洲寻找新的市场和资金来源。俄罗斯充沛的能源资源和地理位置,让它成为中国主要的天然气供应国之一。2014年俄罗斯天然气公司Gazprom同中国石油天然气集团(CNPC)达成了30年天然气供应合同,每年为中国提供380亿立方米天然气。CNPC预测,随着中国减少对煤炭的依赖,中国在2020年的天然气进口量可能从2016年的1900立方米增加至3600立方米。但即便如此,天然气也仅占主要能源消耗量的10%,因此仍有很大的发展空间。Gazprom也同中国讨论建设Power of Siberia天然气管道2号支线,预期每年将输送300亿立方米天然气。

另一条令人鼓舞的消息是,2017普氏能源资讯全球能源企业250强排行榜中,Gazprom名列第一,终结了ExxonMobil连续12年占据首位的历史。该排行调查采用了四项指标:资产、收入、利润和投资资产收益。报告指出,ExxonMobil深受石油价格下滑的影响,但目前尚无证据证明Gazprom和液化天然气供应商之间可能发生天然气价格战。

Gazprom正处于巨额资本支出阶段,Nord Stream二期工程、TurkStream项目和Power of Siberia天然气管道扩建均在进行之中。巨大的资本支出要求以及较高的采矿税收,可能吃掉自由现金流,预期在分红之前现金流呈中性,分红之后呈轻微负面。幸运的是,Gazprom起步时的资产负债表较为强劲,预期债务/资本比为21.9%,调整后的债务状况:税息折旧及摊销前利润为2倍,未来12-18个月预期将保持在2-2.3倍(穆迪预测)。另外,Gazprom截至今年6月30日的现金余额为7800亿卢布,另有5030亿卢布的短期存款。Gazprom没有被列入2014年的制裁表单,因此可以进入海外债务市场:例如,Gazprom via在今年4月份发行了8.5亿英镑债券,2024年到期,票息为4.25%,发行后交易价格提高了4.5点。

我们认为俄罗斯的信贷基本面仍然强劲,惠誉和标普对其前景预测为积极,这都显示了向好的趋势。尽管俄罗斯当下仍受到制裁,但我们认为俄罗斯仍属于投资等级,我们持有的债券均为准主权债券,例如RZD(俄罗斯铁路)和Gazprom。

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