每日新闻更新 - 美联储主席候选人 The Daily Update - Fed chair candidates

美元连续几天持续下跌的趋势似乎在今天停止了。昨天美国债券收益平稳,在美联储会议纪要公布前表现略微低迷。从关于资产负债表的讨论中得出些许细节,获得一些美联储就最近低迷的核心通胀数据的观点。这次美联储全体会议将是耶伦倒数第二次参加,所以值得关注会议纪要的细节。

大约100天内,美联储将产生新的主席,如果按照两周前特朗普的说法(他将在未来两到三周内做出决定),新主席只是时间问题。耶伦仍可能连任,其他人选包括Gary Cohn、Jerome Powell和Kevin Warsh。Powell在以下几个方面同现任主席最一致:(1)鸽派/硬派,(2)设置利率政策(而不是基于规则)的方向,(3)反对大幅度放松监管,(4)预期长期发展结构性放缓。

Cohn也符合美联储主席条件,但他的入选同特朗普税改成功与否紧密相连,据预测,在共和党人勉强接受了税改方案后,特朗普将在未来几周内修订税改方案。我们不认为任何调整会充分缓解像Bob Corker这样的参议员的担忧,这些议员不支持会增加美国赤字的税收方案。无论如何,如果Cohn当选美联储主席,我们预期他会做些不同于耶伦的事情:更加温和,支持进一步放松监管,并认为随着政策变化,长期发展可能放缓。

Paul Krugman和Tim Duy等经济界和美联储权威人士,对候选人Kevin Warsh的批评毫不遮掩。Krugman评论Warsh“把一切都弄错了”,而Duy则说“你不会希望由Wash这样的人来掌控货币政策”。Warsh的绝大部分观点都与耶伦相左:改变目前的鹰派路线以及基于规则的利率政策,支持大力放松监管,认为美联储资产负债表应回到危机前的水平。但正如Duy所指出的,担忧的问题比这些差异更多。他昔日对美联储的评论在今天仍适用“美联储如果由Kevin Warsh掌舵,如果下次再出现经济衰退,对华尔街将是致命性的”。在这样的形势之下,特朗普的干扰似乎应受到指责,但如果他指定耶伦甚至Powell担任主席,也并不能受到指控。但特朗普也许很在意,我们将期待他宣布明智的提名。

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