每日新闻更新 - 美联储会议纪要和中长期通胀展望 The Daily Update - Fed minutes and medium / long term inflation outlook

美联储九月份会议纪要发布后,华尔街股票上涨,美元(DXY指数)在今天早些时候达到两周以来的最低,10年期美国债券收益跌减几个基本点。这些都进一步印证了今年会再次加息,尽管鸽派声音仍很明显。

会议纪要还指出,参会人员仍认为未来几年的通胀水平会拉高,2019年会实现委员会的长期通胀目标,通胀预期风险是平衡的;最近的通胀数据走软可能是持续现象,技术创新对竞争和商业定价的影响可能会加强,缓解通胀压力。但也强调认为,与紧缩的劳动力市场相关的循环压力,或者经济超潜力运行可能带来更高的中期通胀水平,至少今年的通胀疲软部分是由于一次性因素导致。

未来和持续的通胀数据仍然非常重要,因为参会者普遍同意密切监控通胀变化非常重要,即使由于能源成本增加和飓风相关的破坏和重建导致很难进行数据推断。我们已经了解到,几乎所有参会者都赞成逐步增加联邦基金利率,但会议纪要明确表明虽然很多参会者认可采用逐步的方式,但也认为如果中期展望总体保持不变,很有可能在今年晚些时候提高目标区间。

这就是美联储30页的九月份会议纪要和经济展望对通胀的主要观点。从中得出的主要市场信息是政策制定者对非暂时性通胀的担忧比之前预测的要严重。明天公布消费者价格指数,市场反应将值得关注,但实际上,需要更长的时间才能更清楚地看清中期通胀水平,清晰监控上行和下行信号。更重要的是,正如我们之前提到的,我们认为预测今年和未来三年出现加息过于乐观,长期点阵图下行预期支持我们投资曲线长端的观点。长期潜在联邦基金目标利率(根据联邦点阵图推断)为2.75%或更低,只有一人乐观地认为利率在3.5%(2012年早期中值超过4%,只有1个成员预期长期利率为3.75%)。

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