每日新闻更新 - 通货膨胀,菲利普斯曲线 The Daily Update - Inflation, Phillips curve

在今天公布美国消费者价格指数(CPI)前,昨天美联储理事Lael Brainard在华盛顿的一次活动中发表了讲话。她警告称:“看上去的确存在很重要的持续潜在通胀趋势,而大量工作显示通胀趋势放缓。” Governor Brainard自2014年成为美联储理事,在美联储公开理事会(FOMC)中一直属于鸽派。

她还指出“临时因素看上去给出了很重要的解释。但只有今年的临时因素让通胀水平下降,去年的临时因素拉动了通胀水平。一些基于市场的通胀补偿措施显示了同样的下降。这看上去也是全球因素,但我不认为这本身能解释国内通胀。”在关于菲利普斯曲线的辩论中,她说“并不是菲利普斯曲线不可行,而更像是它在整个通胀过程中并不那么重要”。

菲利普斯曲线是由A. W. Phillip于1958年首次提出的一个经济概念,指出通货膨胀和失业率有稳定的反比关系,可宽泛地解释为一个经济体失业率的改变对价格压力会产生可预期的影响。考虑到美国的就业形势以及通胀前景,现在这个概念受到质疑,过去几年采用的大幅度量化宽松政策和替代性货币工具,似乎在今天的经济中打破了就业与通胀的关系,让昔日的学术理论变的模糊起来。辩论仍在继续,但投资人仍在利用过去的这些关系原理:失业率下降,工资上涨,通胀水平提高,因此债券收益会更高。很奇怪的是,我们行业仍喜欢用“过去的表现不是未来表现的保证”来提醒投资者,但却不停地借助过去来预测未来,也许世界已经改变了,历史的工具在现代的动态经济中并不总是有用。

通胀也是欧洲当下的一大话题,欧洲央行主席德拉吉指出利率指导“非常重要”,净资产购买长时间保持当前水平。在德拉吉的评论之前,欧洲央行首席经济学家Praet称通胀压力“仍太疲软”,指出他们未能展示“通胀上扬的有力信号”。通胀辩论仍在继续,我们的基金将保持长久期。

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