每日新闻更新 - 墨西哥的受挫与重启 The Daily Update - Mexico set backs and resilience

英国退欧以来,一直在进行最没有成果的贸易谈判,现在有竞争对手——北美自由贸易协议(NAFTA)。对墨西哥以及美国和加拿大来说,好消息是最近的NAFTA协议可以延期到2018年第一季度,就像他们昨天做的那样。这条新闻一出,墨西哥比索从几天前的低点反弹了近2%。过去几月比索贬值7%,是对今年上半年的牛市市场情绪的激烈逆转,其中的原因之一是特朗普对NAFTA的不妥协强硬立场。

特朗普竞选期间对NAFTA以及同墨西哥关系的言辞,让比索兑美元达到22:1的谷值。随着事态的缓和,比索在2017年上半年升值了25%,在第三季度17.5到18比索可兑1美元,让比索成为表现最坚挺的货币之一。因此,7%的弥补性收入不只因为贸易谈判的恶化,也因为利差交易活动的撤回,增高的波动性减少了高利息的吸引力。另外,最近地震引起的灾害,包括一些工厂中止炼油,将对货币产生一些负面影响。哪怕未来几周或几月NAFTA可能有一些新进展,对比索本身的疲软性也始终存在担忧。

昨天,第四轮NAFTA谈判结束,很清楚的一点是,考虑到“仍存在的巨大差异”以及“新建议产生的挑战”,去年十二月定下的目标并不可行。关于美国、加拿大和墨西哥之间每年价值1.2万亿美元的贸易协议,尤其受到震荡的是汽车行业,墨西哥和美国在该领域的不同生产环节有各种反反复复的调整。墨西哥有最廉价的生产劳动力,每个汽车工人的平均时薪不足4美元,仅为美国的12%。这是同美国的主要分歧点之一,美国显然想签署一系列国际劳动协议来提高汽车界公认的最低工资。

关于地震造成的破坏,昨天墨西哥总统涅托预测重建需要大约480亿比索(约合25亿美元)。但这并不包含丧失的生产力。例如,地震造成的电力系统破坏,导致墨西哥国家石油公司Pemex和墨西哥最大的炼油厂Salina Cruz一直处于停产状态。Pemex处于震中,但并没有受到很大的破坏,但该公司声明:“当地震来时,涡轮发电机正在运转中,受到了一定程度的破坏。”本周Pemex增添了两个新的电动涡轮发电机(可发电70兆瓦!),将恢复正常运营。9月7日的地震之后余震不断,公司已确认“采取了新预防措施来确保工厂的安全生产和未来运行。”Salina Cruz重新启动是好消息,每年可加工330,000桶石油。

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