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本周美国财务部向国会提交了一份关于美国主要贸易伙伴外汇政策的报告。双边贸易不平衡是本届美国政府的主要担忧,该报告监控“可能出现的不公平货币政策,推出政策及改革措施来解决巨大贸易逆差问题”。

美国财务部从三个方面起草“值得密切关注其货币政策的主要贸易伙伴监控清单”:第一,大幅双边贸易顺差是指顺差达200亿美元;第二,经常账户盈余是指至少占国内生产总值的3%;第三,单边介入是指不断出现净外币买入且总超过12个月买入总额占该经济体GDP的2%以上。在最近的报告中,美国财务部将中国、日本、韩国、德国和瑞士列入主要贸易伙伴,并监控这些国家的货币政策,但没有将任何主要贸易伙伴列为货币操纵国。

有趣的是,在过去两份报告中,台湾由于只符合三个标准中的一条,因此被从监控清单中移除,反应出外汇介入减少。但印度被认为正朝着错误的方向发展,加速了净外汇买入的“规模和持续时间”,购买额占GDP约1.8%,同美国存在大幅度的双边货物和贸易顺差。

尽管特朗普发表了相关言论,但到目前为止这份报告只表示中国在过去四个季度到2017年6月的贸易顺差为3560亿美元,继续进行审查,美国非常担忧在减少双边贸易顺差问题上的缓慢进度。它甚至承认尽管存在巨大而持续的双边贸易不平衡,近些年中国的多边外部政策已经进行了更大的调整,其经常账户盈余占GDP的比重在2017年上半年已经从2007年的10%、2016年的1.8%降至1.4%。另外,十年来单方面大规模介入阻止人民币升值,中国最近在外汇市场的介入,加大了资金管控,加强了人民币每日基准价格管理,阻止了可能对美国、中国和全球经济造成消极后果的人民币无序贬值。

实际上,今年人民币兑美元已经升值4.4%(截至九月底),尽管比中国外汇管理系统名义货币篮下跌了0/5%。该货币蓝是由中国人民银行发布,包含24种货币,以贸易为基础,计算任何可能的“不公平货币政策”。

今年到现在为止人民币表现不错,鉴于中国有利的净国外资产状况以及持续的尽管较小的经常账户盈余,我们认为人民币仍有升值的空间。另外,从收入可调节购买力来看,人民币一直被低估,随着美联储政策逐渐收紧,美元应该达到峰值。考虑到积极因素(人民币利率高于美元利率),持有人民币的收益会进一步提高。今年到目前为止,人民币总收益达9.09%,即期收益为5.35%。

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