每日新闻更新 - “石油元”的崛起 The Daily Update - The rise of the ‘petroyuan’

随着原油交易中越来越广泛地适用人民币,1970年代建立的“石油美元”经济面临越来越大的压力。“石油元”最早开始于2012年,当时中国同阿联酋达成55亿美元的货币互换协议,并使用人民币结算从阿布扎比进口的石油。2015年,由于西方制裁,俄罗斯同意采用人民币结算所有向中国出口的石油,这同时也作为吸引中国企业从向沙特进口石油改为从俄罗斯进口的刺激手段。沙特采用美元结算石油。这对中俄两国都有益处,俄罗斯宁愿从中国直接购买产品和服务也不愿意到市场上兑换人民币。

最近,美国和委内瑞拉关系恶化,这促使委内瑞拉使用其他货币结算石油。委内瑞拉国有石油公司PDVSA在九月中期表示希望采用欧元而不是美元进行交易。尽管委内瑞拉最大的原油客户是美国,但最近美国的制裁迫使委内瑞拉寻求其他客户,并同意采用石油进口国货币进行结算,而这当然受到中国这样的国家的欢迎。中国正在努力推动人民币国际化。在PDVSA发出如上言论之后,委内瑞拉宣布将以人民币定价石油,该国石油部指出“委内瑞拉将执行新战略,让委内瑞拉从美元的暴政中解放出来”。我们并不清楚委内瑞拉为什么选择人民币,但推断这跟中国借给委内瑞拉将近600亿美元的债务有关,以优惠的石油价格作为交换。当然,委内瑞拉正面临最严重的经济危机,PDVSA正处于崩溃的边缘,标普对委内瑞拉国债和PDVSA债券的评级均为CCC-,惠誉对其评级为CC。由于委内瑞拉目前的石油基本停产,因此改用人民币的定价结构对货币本身目前几乎没有产生影响,然而,去美元化在现在看来仍是很大胆的操作。

同时,作为沙特最大的石油进口国,中国最近再次开启了同沙特的对话,希望沙特接受采用人民币进行石油交易。这次对话颇有争议,即使美国仍是沙特最大的竞争对手,沙特货币仍同美元挂钩,因此从中期来看不会有太大的变动。然而,最近金砖国家会议提出了新观点:以人民币为基础、支持黄金支付的新油价标准,获得了金砖国家以及其他国家的广泛认可。位于上海的新石油指数同目前的布伦特和WTI指数效力相当,然而,未来合同将以人民币而不是美元进行定价。由于中国是全球最大的石油进口国,这一指数将具有同等的重要性,将很可能减少石油美元的使用,并增加石油元的使用。支持黄金可能受到像一些中东国家等出口国的欢迎,他们倾向于接受黄金付款。我们将继续追踪相关进展,这一大胆动作对美元、石油、货币、黄金和大宗商品市场等领域将产生十分巨大的影响。

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