每日新闻更新 - 英国经济 The Daily Update - UK growth

英国首相已经提出过警告,本届政府只有6个月的时间达成过渡协议,否则国内就业将迅速流失到欧盟。苏格兰皇家银行行长Howard Davies爵士表示,包括他的公司在内的很多企业将开始启动工作岗位的迁移,并警告称如果明年第一季度前仍没有更详实的信息,离开伦敦的人数将加速。这些警告的根据是一些资深托利党成员未能成功罢黜梅相。有报道称梅首相将在10月19-20日同欧洲领导人会谈后重新调整内阁,届时Boris Johnson很有可能是输家。


种种迹象已经显示,全英国九月份的汽车销售量连续第四个月下滑,同比减少了9.3%。这是六年来首次出现九月份关键市场下跌。尽管一些下跌是由于对柴油和空气质量方案的担忧,但是正如英国汽车生产商与经销商协会会长Mike Hawes所说的,“九月份一直是英国新型汽车市场的健康晴雨表,因此这一数据下滑将引起巨大担忧”,“经济和政治领域的不确定性正在削弱买方信心,消费者和企业更倾向于拖后进行大宗购买。”

英国另一个让人担忧的迹象是家庭债务在这一不确定时期出现增长,这让最贫困的家庭暴露在任何金融动荡中。根据穆迪的报告,这一债务大山将家庭置于危险境地。家庭减少储蓄来支撑消费,削弱了信用缓冲。穆迪的Greg Davies解释说:“庞大的家庭债务仍在增长,这让消费者很容易受到经济下滑的影响”,“我们预期英国GDP增幅将放缓,这是消费者信心降低的结果,再加上购房出租贷款放缓,将会导致房价下跌。”

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