每日新闻更新 - 委内瑞拉经济接近不可挽回的临界点 The Daily Update - Venezuela nearing tipping point

委内瑞拉国有石油巨头PDVSA正位于崩溃的边缘,明天即是巨额利息和票息的偿还日,委内瑞拉正在经历该国有史以来最严重的经济和政治危机,该国面临的压力越来越大。周末未能对主权债券支付相对小额的票息(由于“技术困难”,但有30天缓冲期),委内瑞拉似乎正在优先处理PDVSA的债务:位于加拉加斯的咨询公司Ecoanalitica发推称,“关于PDVSA20的资金(资本+利息)已经获得批准,因此到周五应该就可以生效。”截止本文发稿,我们还没有看到任何来自政府或PDVSA的官方确认声明。

然而,如果这是真的,那就是好消息,PDVSA将对下周到期的一支债券支付12亿美元,并对NuStar Energy支付2600万美元,这样PDVSA就可以接入Statia石油码头,另外还有拖欠中国和俄罗斯的500亿美元。债务重构是回避未来第一支到期债券的一个选择,但是美国制裁可能更不利于进入国际市场。同时,有传言称俄罗斯的准主权油气巨头Rosneft正在考虑拉PDVSA一把,试图避免发生主权违约。

委内瑞拉在过去一直很幸运,总能在最后时刻找到偿债资金,然而明年到期债务将达到约130亿美元(政府和PDVSA加在一起),而其外汇储备不足100亿美元,央行资金储备仅有10亿美元,违约风险飞速增加。尽管该国的石油储备庞大,但委内瑞拉接连不断地面临冲突,至少中期来看是如此。实际上,债权人可能需要走进丛林,抽出原油用作抵押。

自从2014年6月油价无情下跌,经济就一直备受摧残,考虑到原油占出口收入的95%,这种打击就更为严重。尽管委内瑞拉期望同中国合约,按照人民币进行石油结算,以此削弱美元的影响力,并吸引中国企业,但是来自中国的需求似乎并没有对石油出口造成太大的影响。委内瑞拉还必须应对不断升级的美国制裁;据相关数据显示恶性通胀已达到约128%;由于缺乏医疗用品、卫生保健、食品和日常用品,造成了潜在人道危机;同时政治动荡和军国主义似乎正在加深。有观点称局势已经非常严重,经济正处于无望回归的临界点。国际货币基金组织在2007年就切断了同委内瑞拉的联系,最近已经放弃筹划可能的救助方案。

几年前,委内瑞拉还被视为一个富裕的经济体,现在缺乏可靠的官方经济数据,很难评估该国正在面临怎样的形势,更不要说其经常账户数据。我们没有投资该国的原因除了其动荡的经济基本面之外,其垃圾股评级也是很重要的因素,穆迪、标普和惠誉最近对该国的信用评级分别为Caa3、CCC-和CC。

我们宁愿投资评级更高的阿布扎比债券及其国有投资工具IPIC,两者的评级为Aa1和AA。尽管阿布扎比的出口收入主要来源于油气领域,但是其非石油领域的营收正在增长,该国也在推行经济多元化。这个富裕的酋长国也有丰富的油气储备,政府资产负债表非常强劲,其人均GDP位居世界前列。我们最近纳入了该国2047到期、票息为4.25%的主权债券,其预期回报和收益约为16%,有4档信用缓冲,其价差为146点,而同等级久期为13.3年的债券价差仅为50点,我们认为该债券的交易价格比其评级低5档,回报率和收益率约为17%。

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