每日新闻更新 - 耶伦/国际清算银行/大风暴 The Daily Update - Yellen / BIS / The great storm

30年前的今天,伦敦和英国东南部遭遇到200年一遇的大风暴。当时在风暴来袭之前,BBC的天气播报员Michael Fish的一番讲说很有名:“一位女性联系到BBC,说她听说将有飓风…如果你正在看这个节目,不要担心,没有飓风!”几小时后飓风就造成了有史以来最大的破坏,19人遇难,Sevenoak(七橡树)镇的七棵橡树被吹倒六棵,总共有1500万棵树被吹倒。

周末,国际货币基金组织(IMF)举行了会议,美联储主席耶伦在会上作了讲话。市场对此的反应是,耶伦再次确认了美联储公开市场委员会(FOMC)将进一步缩紧政策,略有疲软的消费者价格指数(CPI)可能继续走软。耶伦说:“我对此最乐观的推测是,这些疲软数据不会持续。随着劳动力市场不断走强,我预期明年的通胀水平会提高。”关于利率,她指出:“我们预期在未来阶段里,联邦基金利率的中立水平将会提高,为保持经济发展,未来几年进行加息是合宜的。”

然而,并不是所有人都认同耶伦。在Samuel Beckett的剧作《等待戈多》中,两个主要人物Estragon和Vladimir在等待一个叫做戈多的人,但戈多却从来没有出现。国际清算银行(BIS)的货币与经济部部长Claudio Borio在描述等待系统出现通胀时,就用“等待戈多”来描述。BIS认为到目前为止,没有人弄明白为什么一些经济体已经达到或接近充分就业,中央银行也注入了大量刺激资金,但通胀水平却一直萎靡疲软。Borio在最近的季度报告中指出:“这是一个价值上万亿美元的问题,关系到未来数年全球经济发展道路,也完全有可能决定着目前政策框架的未来。”BIS也认为在金融市场存在“繁荣”的警告信号。

报告研究了美国企业案例,指出:“与GDP相关的整体私营领域债务水平否定了后危机的可能。但只有家庭进行了调整,家庭债务过度扩张曾是问题的一个核心原因。而企业债务现在却远远高于危机前的水平。这样一来,企业层面的指标达到了像上世纪80年代那样的企业信贷膨胀状态,尽管由于当前利率是有史以来的最低水平,使债务负担相对较低。其他信号也指向大致相同的方向:高收益率债券以及比重越来越高的契约条款保障债券和低信用价差。的确,尽管很多企业持有大量现金,但信用评级却不断恶化。”

该报告还指出:“很自然的,宽松的货币政策一直在发挥作用。这也让理解‘通胀的缺席’显得尤为重要,因为通胀水平就是央行的司南。很多经济体接近或超过充分就业水平,央行也史无前例地努力推进通胀,但是为什么通胀却一直表现疲软?令人担忧的是,没有人知道真正的答案。”

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