每日新闻更新 第1部分:体制改变:通货膨胀 The Daily Update - Part I: Regime change: Inflation

在接下来三天,我们将从宏观经济学家Bob Gay的最新作品Regime Change: Inflation中摘录部分内容。

随着杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)提名为美联储新任主席,出现很多关于委员会成员变更是否会影响美国货币政策轨道和执行的推测。鹰派美联储主席,包括保罗·沃尔克(Paul Volcker)和珍妮特·耶伦(Janet Yellen),在经济形势急剧动荡的时期进行政策引导。沃克尔通过打破70年代的工资物价关系重塑了美国的未来。耶伦将为人所铭记的则是她将美联储从全球金融危机后的非常政策中解放了出来。鲍威尔面临的挑战更加隐性,他和其他委员会成员可能会忽略。换句话说,过去三十年世界发生了巨大的变化,支撑货币政策的分析工具却没有同步改变。经济学家通常将这种转变称为“体制转型”,所面临的挑战就是开发适应新社会秩序的新分析工具。简言之,央行银行家们正在盲飞,亟需升级他们的雷达系统。就这一点来说,对其他的政策制定者、规划者以及必须借助预测来进行判断和做决策的任何人来说,情况也是一样的。

导致体制改变的诸多原因中,最主要的包括全球化和科技,这也是涵盖了很多可能原因的热门词,但它们终归是改变了世界的普遍现象。其他重大的变化包括老龄化人口的储蓄模式、中国飞速的工业化进程、亚洲超量的储蓄以及加剧的财富不平等问题,都导致了旧经济规范的瓦解。当然,这些因素很多都是互相关联、互相强化。对投资者来说,最重要的就是这些改变是否是持久的,从而合理化目前的高估值。

让我们锁定三大体制变化,我认为这三大变化是应对潜在风险和回报的关键所在。第一,通货膨胀与经济衰退的反比关系似乎越来越微弱。如果真是这样,那么投资者将无需再担心过度的需求会像过去周期峰值那样加剧通货膨胀。第二,实际利率标准已经下降,现在已接近零。购买央行债券当然造成了利率的下降,但储蓄行为以及财富分配也是其中的原因,而后两者似乎很快会随时发生变化。第三,尽管企业利润创下记录、现金充裕、获得低成本融资异常简单、当前商业周期跨度几乎仅仅接近历史记录,但是商业投资一直很疲软。新的商业模式不像旧时工业扩张那样需要太多实体厂房,而这回避了一个问题:一旦央行不提供刺激,那么怎样才能保持充分就业。

明天的摘录将关注第一个体制变化,因为价格和工资的关系影响着其他两个变化。

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