每日新闻更新 第1部分:体制改变:通货膨胀 The Daily Update - Part I: Regime change: Inflation

在接下来三天,我们将从宏观经济学家Bob Gay的最新作品Regime Change: Inflation中摘录部分内容。

随着杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)提名为美联储新任主席,出现很多关于委员会成员变更是否会影响美国货币政策轨道和执行的推测。鹰派美联储主席,包括保罗·沃尔克(Paul Volcker)和珍妮特·耶伦(Janet Yellen),在经济形势急剧动荡的时期进行政策引导。沃克尔通过打破70年代的工资物价关系重塑了美国的未来。耶伦将为人所铭记的则是她将美联储从全球金融危机后的非常政策中解放了出来。鲍威尔面临的挑战更加隐性,他和其他委员会成员可能会忽略。换句话说,过去三十年世界发生了巨大的变化,支撑货币政策的分析工具却没有同步改变。经济学家通常将这种转变称为“体制转型”,所面临的挑战就是开发适应新社会秩序的新分析工具。简言之,央行银行家们正在盲飞,亟需升级他们的雷达系统。就这一点来说,对其他的政策制定者、规划者以及必须借助预测来进行判断和做决策的任何人来说,情况也是一样的。




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