每日新闻更新 - 墨西哥国家石油公司Pemex The Daily Update - Pemex

最近,由墨西哥政府100%持有的墨西哥国家石油公司Pemex一直备受新闻媒体的关注。该公司最近宣布在其Ixachi-1号油井发现了近15年来最大的陆上油田,预期总储油量约为3.5亿桶油当量,初步估计资源量达15亿桶油当量。这一新发现的油田无疑具有世界规模,而考虑到它距离现有基础设施很近,便于快速开发,就则更有吸引力。在这一势头上,除了这一发现,墨西哥还发现了其他油田,尽管是由参与墨西哥政府能源改革计划的私有企业发现的,最醒目的当属Zama离岸油田的发现,预计石油储存量达14-20亿桶油当量。

最近,Pemex公司的分包计划也颇受关注:Cheiron公司赢得了Cardenas-Mora油田50:50的合资竞标,DEA Deutsche公司赢得了Ogarrio油田50:50的合资竞标。Pemex将从Cardenas-Mora项目中净收益1.25亿美元,从Ogarrio项目中净收益1.9亿美元,而墨西哥政府将分别从中获得4150万美元和2.139亿美元的收入。有意思的是,Ayin-Batsil油田有超过3.59亿桶3P储量,但却没有得到竞标,也许是因为条款不够有吸引力。下一轮分包预期将在12月份开始,届时将对Nobilis-Maximino深水油田寻找合作伙伴。分包对Pemex来说是很有吸引力的合作方式,有助于提高产量,并与国际运营商一同分担成本和风险,同时还能引入国际最佳惯例。Nobilis-Maximino油田特别有吸引力,因为其3P储量预期达到5.02亿油当量,这接近于Trion油田的规模,后者由Pemex去年与BHP(必和必拓公司)合资开发,投资总额达110亿美元。其他分包项目预期将于2018年开始。

尽管这是好消息,但是Pemex第3季度的营业收入很让人失望,净损失达1018亿墨西哥比索(约合56亿美元):受九月份飓风和地震的影响,石油产量下降,天然油田下滑。在9月30日之前的九个月,Pemex业绩表现一直很好,净收益达189亿比索。更重要的是,这是自2012年以来Pemex第一年出现盈利,且墨西哥2017年平均混合油价为43美元。在上一次也就是2012年Pemex出现净盈利时,平均混合原油价格为104美元。这说明,在整个价值链上以成本和效率驱动的盈利能力受到了一定的牵引。令人鼓舞的是,Pemex已经确认了其今年的原油日产量目标是194万桶,尽管出现了自然灾害,在2018年将继续引导小幅提高产量,这将是自2004年以来首次出现产量增加。

作为一支准主权债券,Pemex分别从穆迪和标普获得了Baa3和BBB+的评级,这体现了该公司对墨西哥经济的重要性,以及墨西哥政府对该公司一贯的支持,使得该公司的评级高于其独立的信用和资产指标的保障范畴。Pemex在我们的投资组合中仍颇具吸引力,尽管自从九月底以来并没有出现产量上升的迹象。由于北美自由贸易协定再谈判的不确定性,墨西哥面临的风险压力加大,这可能是原因之一。尽管基本情形保持不变,但该协议可能会重新谈判。就目前水平来看,我们支持的债券,例如2035年到期、票息为6.625%的Pemex债券,很有吸引力,其收益率为6%,交易价格比其所在等级低约4.8档。

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