每日新闻更新 - 布伦特原油价格反弹 The Daily Update - Brent Rally

本月布伦特原油价格出现反弹,截至发稿,已经比六月份的谷值增长了超过30%。目前期货交易每桶油价在60美元以上,布伦特油价达到两年来的峰值。这是由于最近有报道称OPEC(主要是沙特)和俄罗斯的石油减产协议将延长至2018年第一季度。周末沙特王储穆罕默德释放出强有力的信号支持延长减产协议,11月底将在维也纳举行OPEC会议。最近有报道称OPEC产油最高的国家之一伊朗面临不稳定局势,加上全球经济增长强劲带来的石油需求量增加预期,也加剧了布伦特油价的升高。在这些信息的支撑之下,大量做市者大幅提高了2018年布伦特油价的预期,例如摩根斯坦利预期布伦特油价将增长11美元至每桶58美元。

尽管出现最近的反弹以及向好的市场情绪,但很难确定原油在未来会继续按照这样的价格水平进行交易,尽管IMF预期石油中期价格大约在50-60美元每桶。每桶原油60美元仍然较低,尤其是考虑到只有五个OPEC国家的油价达到大约每桶60美元的财政平衡水平,他们分别是:科威特、伊朗、卡塔尔、伊拉克和阿联酋。需要提出的是,财政平衡油价水平还没有考虑到开采、资本开支、生产、税收和运输,只是衡量了为满足消费计划和平衡预算所需的原油量。

因此,OPEC的领导者以及最大的产油国沙特阿拉伯遭受了很大的预算挑战,已经采取措施削减石油开支。由于石油储存在接近地表的位置以及存在大量的油田,其开采成本为全球最低。根据IMF的数据,沙特的财政平衡油价在今年是每桶70美元,去年这个数字是96.60美元。实际上,海湾国家已经开始减少对石油的依赖,过去三年多的时间里,已经消除或减少对油气的补贴。根据IMF和彭博社的报道,尽管海湾产油国的财政平衡油价已经降低,但巴林、阿曼、沙特和阿联酋仍然开销超支。因此平衡其预算是比较棘手的问题。另外,科威特和卡塔尔受2014年以来的油价下跌的影响较小,预计其2018年的财政平衡油价将低于50美元每桶。一些国家努力实现经济多元化,减少对油气收入的依赖,但要走的路还很长。

根据我们的国外净资产分析模型,以上提及的海湾国家拥有丰富的国外净资产,均为富裕型国家。除了伊拉克、伊朗和巴林不属于投资级外,其他国家的债券均有超过3档信用缓冲,平均加权收益率约为4.5%,均在我们的投资组合内。

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