每日新闻更新 - 退欧协议,或者无协议 The Daily Update - Brexit deal or no deal

英国最终进入退欧协议的艰难模式:英国原则上同意支付550亿英镑(一揽子交易的一部分)作为撤回对欧盟未来预算支持的补偿。在之前几个月,认为这一立场不合乎逻辑的观点并没有任何进展。特里莎梅首相先前提出的200亿欧元和400亿欧元的退欧费也没有得到认可。考虑到先前几次谈判英国“欠款”约600亿欧元,似乎英国在头几条条款做出了很大的让步,而欧盟做出的让步非常少。该消息一出,英镑升值1%,对美元约1.34,在今年几乎增值了9%,意味着这一小步把英国推进了拖延已久的贸易谈判,而英国的退欧谈判新手将为所付款额争取更多价值,不管这550亿英镑是在一个如何有益的协议中。这笔付款相当于每个英国成年男人、女人和儿童平均支付1000英镑,面对含有这种条款的协议,每个人都希望它所产生的经济效益能等同于甚至高于没有协议的情况。

的确,同欧盟达成良好的贸易服务协议的最佳途径是拥有有利的谈判位置,这部分上意味着要有所准备,并清楚潜在无协议的优势。也许只有欧盟谈判员中的顽固力量认为英国有可行的选择来放弃不成比例的需求并考虑对双方都有利的最佳选择。各方都会追求有效的管理条款和公平贸易条款:不抨击英国退出欧盟,但要说明它不再受欧盟四大自由的约束(产品自由、资本自由、服务自由和劳力自由)。那些认为英国没有符合欧盟要求的可行方案的悲观者(以及所有相关政客和谈判人员)会进一步坚定自己的信心以及对英国B计划的理解。也许,非常好的起点资源是Barnabas Reynolds和Politeia的三部曲,包括昨天发布的“The Art of the No Deal”(没有协议的艺术)所概括的(尽管并没有支持)准备充分且无协议地从欧盟退出的优势、工作和机遇。

如果彻底消除了分手费的障碍,未来几天/数月将会有更多关于退欧条款的实质性新闻,很多期待已久的问题将云开雾散。至于到2019年3月欧盟27个成员国能否一致同意所有条款,那将是另一个完全不同的问题。

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