每日新闻更新 - 美联储,中国党代会 The Daily Update - Fed, China National Congress

上周,整体走强的美国经济数据、税改方案、美联储新任主席人选预期,种种新闻让美国国债收益率走高,10年期债券收益率增长了4点达到2.41%。上周税改预算决议的通过让美元指数反弹了1.22%。关于美国经济数据,芝加哥联储全国活动数据对趋好的数据表现显得非常惊讶,同对九月份初级耐用产品数据的反应一样。这进一步拉高了10年期债券收益。2017年第三季度GDP增速最初预测值为3%,比第二季度略低。

今天晚些时候,个人收入、个人消费以及美联储偏好的个人消费支出数据的发布将引起市场的关注。PMI和ISM指数在周三公布,之后将举办FOMC会议,周四将宣布加息决策。主要关注点将集中在10月份的就业数据上,由于台风的影响九月份就业数据惨淡,因此10月份的数据将很让人期待。市场预期新增就业将超过31.2万,失业率将不变保持在4.2%,时薪的环比和同比将略有下滑。除了经济数据,本周还将有更多的税改和预算相关的新闻。另外,特朗普可能在周五前往亚洲进行国事访问前指定美联储主席(明年上任)。Politico认为人选可能在美联储理事Jerome Powell和斯坦福大学经济学家John Taylor之间产生,前者会继续目前的政策方向,后者则属于鹰牌认为目前的利息过低。

周三中国第19次党代会闭幕,正式标志着习近平主席作为党总书记开始第二个任期(有迹象显示可能会有第三个!)。习近平进一步推动了邓小平在上世纪80年代发起的中国特色社会主义理论和改革。至于“习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想”到底是什么样子,只有时间能说明一切。除了加强权力,大会不可避免地也会提到追求“更平衡的经济发展”。实现人口和地区更平衡的发展非常重要,它标志着习现在更有能力应对既有特权精英,中国现在必须超越“先富带动后富”的局限性。反腐行动还将继续下去,对中西部省份的特殊关注应有助于这些长期被边缘化的省份。

本周人民币略有贬值,美元走强。上周中国没有太多关键经济数据,九月份同比工业利润有所增加。明天将公布PMI数据,本周晚些时候将公布财新制造业数据。

欧洲央行保持利率不变,宣布将从2018年1月开始将每月资产购买计划减半至300亿欧元。做此声明之后,欧洲央行行长德拉吉表示该决定“考虑到日益强劲的经济发展速度,对实现预期通胀目标日益越来越充满信心”。然而,他也补充说“国内价格压力整体仍然较大”。该声明发出后,德国十年期债券收益反弹,欧元直转下降,整周对美元跌1.5%。周二将公布2017年第3季度GDP数据和失业率数据。周四英格兰银行将举行会议,预期利率将提升25点。

中国发行了13年来的首支美元债券,共两支债券,超购超过11倍,共筹资20亿美元,在香港发行,现已基本售罄。5年期债券仅比美国债券高15点,10年期债券高25点。我们认为从相对价值来看,两支债券的价格都过高,因此没有将其纳入我们的投资组合。这两支债券没有获得三大主流评级机构的评级,尽管三大评级机构对中国的评级是A1/A+,因此只能使用预估评级,根据我们的计算,这两支债券的价格比其预期等级分别高大约3档和3.75档。

我们的资产组合新加了阿布扎比国有原油管道公司ADCOP的30年期债券。该债券的评级为AA,收益率为4.6……,根据我们的相对价值模型,该债券的价格比其等级低6档。我们认为阿布扎比2047年到期、票息为4.125%的债券收益率接近4.2%,交易价格比所在等级低4档。我们认为债权国家的准主权债券是很有吸引力的投资。

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