每日新闻更新 - 美联储公开市场委员会,美国国债 The Daily Update - FOMC, US Treasury

不出所料,昨晚美联储公开市场委员会(FOMC)将联邦资金利率保持在1.0%-1.25的区间。会议之后发布的声明基本没有变化,市场对此的接受度相对平缓。按照目前的发展,该委员会指出尽管九月份飓风造成了一些破坏,但劳动力市场一直保持上升态势,并暗示通胀仍保持疲软态势。委员会已经排除了对整体通胀有提振作用的汽油价格。有观点认为九月份保持了大致平衡,基本没有变化。美联储新任理事Quarles加入了9-0的观点阵营,同意保持美联储政策不变。预期十月份会有加息,有80%的预期认为期货市场会上升25点。

然而,美国长期国债市场的收益仍保持了十月底之前的低迷状态。这主要由于美国财政部肩宽顾问委员会(TBAC)发出的国债再融资的消息和评论。考虑到平缓的收益率曲线,有市场推测认为美国国债可能会增加长期国债的发债水平。财政部长努钦曾表示不存在这样的计划,但市场却认为可能会重新考虑这一计划。

然而,昨晚财政部的言论减缓了长期供应的恐慌,特别是由于美联储开始启动缩表计划。大体而言,我们预期明年的发债量会增加,重点会放在短期债券上。

虽然TBAC的评论只是一些提议,但似乎与目前财政部对长期债务的观点一致。美国财政部认为“考虑到目前的财政状况,委员会同意财政部增加2年期、3年期和5年期债券,同时保持长期债券的发行,这样加权平均期限不会大幅度偏离当前水平。”

我们预期未来几个月长期债权受益会走低。当然,通胀水平是关键和决定因素。预期十二月份美联储会有所行动,不管是耶伦还是鲍威尔担任美联储主席,美国的通胀状况都会受到密切关注。

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