每日新闻更新 - 印度评级提档,但仍太昂贵 The Daily Update - India upgraded….but still expensive

上周穆迪将印度的长期评级提升了一档至Baa2(稳定)。标普和惠誉的评级是BBB-。这是近十年来印度首次获得评级提档。穆迪表示:“提升评级是因为穆迪预期印度持续的经济和制度改革将提高印度的发展潜力,并为政府债务提供庞大稳定的融资基础,并会逐步降低政府一般性中期债务负担。同时,虽然印度的高债务负担一直妨碍该国的信用,但穆迪认为已执行的改革将减少债务骤增的风险,即使是在潜在经济下行的形势之下。”

虽然有来自金融市场的好消息,但评级提升可能会阻碍莫迪总理上周公布的缓解预算赤字的计划(先于评级升级),因为投资者的信心变得更重要了。然而,从另一面来看,评级升级也可能为莫迪的参加大选注入亟需的动力。莫迪总理的家乡所在州Gujarat将在下月选出182名成员的议会,2019年印度将举行大选。民意调查显示,莫迪所在的印度人民党和印度国大党之间的差距越来越小。去年,莫迪做出决定,召回该国约90%的流通货币,导致通胀水平骤增,劳动力市场更加疲软。

根据我们的净资产模型,印度的等级为3星,外债低于GDP的50%,因此符合我们的投资参数标准。我们没有投资印度只是因为虽然该国评级提了一档,但我们未能找到在该地区的投资价值所在。

例如,印度公司Reliance Industries的业务涵盖了油气勘探生产、炼油和销售、石化产品、零售和电信,其评级甚至高于印度主权评级,标普对其评级为BBB+。昨天,该公司的10年期债券价差比UTS高130点,哪怕采用这个最高的评级BBB+,根据我们的相对价值模型,该公司债券也“没有吸引力”,预期回报率为负值-2%,价格比其所在等级高一档,也就是说,其交易价格相当于是A-等级。我们宁愿持有等级为Aa2的科威特政府债券,其2027年到期、票息为3.5%的债券预期回报率约为7.15%,交易价格比所在等级低3.7档。

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