每日新闻更新 - 美国非农就业数据 The Daily Update - NFPR

今天美国十月份非农就业数据出炉,新增岗位26.1万个,低于预期(飓风后的反弹)的31.3万个岗位。九月份的数据从-33,000上调至18,000,两个月的向上修正为9万。失业率从九月份的4.2%下跌至4.1%,劳动参与率从63.1%下降至62.7%。时薪低于预期,同比增长2.4%,低于上月的2.9%:第3季度就业成本指数报告相对疲软,同预期一致,季度增长率为0.7%。有警告称仍存在飓风相关的数据扭曲,这些数据显示劳动力市场有所改善,但通胀水平和工资待遇仍疲软:在这些数据的支持下,投资者继续预期美联储将在12月加息。

在对特朗普的推文进行了数周的揣测发酵之后,昨天终于迎来了提名杰罗姆·鲍威尔为下一任美联储主席的消息,尽管这还需要得到参议院的批准。鲍威尔已经成为后期阶段的市场领跑者,其提名也是预料之内的事:他已经作为理事在执行相关职责,预期上任后会延续当前政策。

共和党颁布了《减税与就业法案》,不断推进税改进展,新税改政策无疑有益于企业,因为它要将税率从35%降至20%。虽然也被称为“中产减税”,但看上去对高收入人群更有益。它为富人淘汰了遗产税,将收入40-100万美元人群的税率降至35%,尽管保留了对最高收入者的39.6%的税率,但只有达到100万美元才开始缴付:例如,提议缩减州税和地方税,消除对50万美元以上住房贷款的按揭利息优惠。总之,新提议增加了1.5万亿美元的10年以上国债,这同上月通过的预算决议的预算总额相当,但这不太可能被赤字鹰派接受。很显然,需要进行一些协商和妥协才能让新税改方案在众议院和参议员都获得足够通过。

最近数据显示美国经济正在稳健发展:第3季度GDP的年化增长率为3%,第2季度为3.1%,消费者信息指数达到了自2000年以来的最高水平。第3季度的分解数据显示,波动性库存数据为GDP 3%的增速贡献了0.7%,也存在其他潜在因素,例如每个季度对国内采购团的实际最终销售数据就不那么惊艳:第3季度同比增长2.3%,全球金融危机后GDP年增速主要处于1.5%-2.5%,只有2015年达到了2.9%。美联储最近对2018和2019年的中值预期也分别为2.1%和1.9%。问题在于经济增速能否保持在3%以上,而在这点上,新税改政策实际会中止相当一部分的经济增长。

重要的是,通胀数据保持良好,资产负债表正常化也正在进行中,我们认为美联储会采取逐步平稳的方式进行加息。提名鲍威尔担任美联储主席意味着当下政策会延续下去。因此我们认为美联储会领先于曲线,我们继续看好收益曲线远端。

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