每日新闻更新 - 原油库存和页岩油影响 The Daily Update - Oil inventory and shale impact

石油价格继续走高,今天早些时候布伦特原油价格每桶达到61.7美元。昨天我们提到了原油价格对中东石油国家尤其是沙特阿拉伯的影响,今天我们进一步探索美国政府原油库存的可能趋势,以及美国页岩油产量带来的长期影响。

从现在到本月底计划举行的下一次OPEC会议举行这段时间里,很难预期会发生任何大的变化。最近沙特和俄罗斯达成协议延长石油减产期限,OPEC国家已经有超过92%同意减产,已经尽力全力,现在就看美国石油业的反应了。到下一次OPEC会议,距达成日产石油桶数减少180万桶的协议已经过了一年。俄罗斯同意“至少将减产协议延长至2018年底”,沙特似乎会用此来说服其他小国也遵此协议,并进一步延长减产期限。然而,要让深入减产更有说服力,还面临很大的挑战(委内瑞拉今年的石油产量已经减少了8%以上)。

这些国家将很难找到可行的方式把油价推高到超过目前的60美元的水平。页岩油是OPEC国家很讨厌的一个词,美国可以用很低的成本提高油量。美国原油每日出口量几乎增加了200万桶,大大抵消了OPEC国家减少的180万桶。大部分已经探明的美国页岩油储量可实现每桶盈利60-80美元。美国的目标是将页岩油的日产量要从目前的600万桶增加到1000万桶,已经连续10个月实现产量增加,没有明显迹象显示这一趋势会中止。事实是,4个月之前布伦特原油价跌至45美元以下,可能多少会遏制传统石油的开发,但对页岩油的生产却没有影响。根据贝克休斯公布的数据,全球石油和天然气钻井平台数量为2081个,比2016年6月的谷值增长了将近50%。这高于目前的供应水平。从西德州中质原油(WTI)和布伦特原油之间的价格差距,可以看出美国在增加供应:昨天两者之间的价格差距达到7美元,这样高的价差从2015年8月以来还没有出现过。今天美国的原油库存总变化达到-2435,在过去六个月中只有一个月的数字是正值。这低于预期的-1600(12月份的历史平均数据),但是油价降低了半个半分点,也许市场希望石油供应进一步增加。尽管冬季即将来临,但是已经降低至阻力线水平的石油库存似乎还在挣扎,特别是美国油量的小幅增加很可能会在未来几周增加库存量。

OPEC国家的财政平衡油价保持在47-95美元每桶的水平,一些国家能很好地应对每桶低于60美元的油价水平(到今年12月,每桶油价低于60美元已经是第3个年头了)。很多这些国家(均属于我们投资的考虑对象)都属于投资等级,是强健的净债权国,其财政和石油平衡点均位于目前平均油价之上或与平均油价持平。沙特阿拉伯的财政平衡油价为70美元,不会对该国形成任何困扰,沙特拥有庞大的石油储备,而且大量已知油田接近地表,开发成本颇低。我们投资的其他OPEC国家目前的油价均处于盈利水平,可提供其他国家无法提供的投资机遇。

卡塔尔和科威特的财政平衡油价均为47美元,过去11月中,布伦特原油有10天低于这一水平,过去12个月中布伦特原油平均价格约为53美元。卡塔尔的油价达到60美元,日产量150万桶,每桶盈利13美元,利润远超过了其传统开支,同时该国还在继续寻求更可行的经济政策。另外,该国的人均GDP达到60000美元,是收入最高的国家之一;按外国资产占GDP的比重来看,该国也是最大的债权国之一。卡塔尔2030年到期、评级为Aa3的债券收益率为4%,很有吸引力,与美国国债的价差为150点。而根据我们的模型,一个类似久期的Aa3债券的收益率大概只有3%,价差只有50点。我们相信,这多出来的收益率以及弥补性经济实力可以平衡并补偿假定的风险。

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