每日新闻更新 - 俄罗斯 The Daily Update - Russia

俄罗斯第三季度GDP同比增长1.8%,低于第二季度的2.5%,也略低于市场预期的2%。据报道,俄央行行长纳比乌林娜(Elvira Nabiullina)预期2017年GDP增长率为1.8%,央行一直朝着1.7%-2.2%的区间做引导,财政部预期经济增速会在该区间的上半部分。穆迪预期俄国2017年GDP增速为1.5%。所有预测都显示俄罗斯今年的GDP增速远高于2016年的负值-0.2%。

通货膨胀压力不断缓解,10月份受益于部分临时因素CPI同比增长2.7%,仍低于央行的目标值4%,卢布今年表现相对稳定,这暗示央行仍有一定空间进一步降息。10月份央行将利率下调25个基本点至8.25%,市场预期在12月15日会再次降息,因为实际利率仍很高。

虽然降息有助于经济发展,但俄国经济仍面临结构性挑战,经济发展局限在1.5%-2%的区间。人口老龄化和国际制裁都不利于吸引外商直接投资,同时也有待改善机构性优势和经商环境。另外,生产率的增长很薄弱,经济发展主要依靠由政府把持的关键领域的商品。在2016年联邦议会讲话中,普京总统承认存在一些结构性挑战,要重点改善经商环境。有趣的是,在世界银行2018年“经商从容榜”中,俄罗斯位列第35位,这比去年以及2011年的120名有了很大的提高。

将于2018年生效的财政政策是一项正面发展,旨在重构财政缓冲,来应对石油价格略高于40美元预算(乌拉尔混合原油)的时期。因此,高于预算总额的收入将转换成美元,并以主权财富基金的形式持有。很显然,油价交易价格高于预算水平,说明财政状况正在不断改善。目前有预测认为联邦政府在2020年的财政赤字将下降至GDP的0.8%,而今天的预期赤字占GDP的2.1%。

从2014年中期以来,油价出现断崖式下跌,俄罗斯受益于其浮动汇率产生的缓冲效果,所需的财政调整资金远低于采用固定汇率的国家。另外,俄罗斯拥有相当大的资产缓冲和较低的债务水平,外部状况比较稳健,再加上对外部融资的低依赖性,这对应对八月份美国政府通过的《以制裁应对美国敌人法案》所带来的制裁风险,具有很重要的作用。

俄罗斯是我们比较认可的投资对象之一,准主权债券的价值更高。俄罗斯天然气公司Gazprom由俄罗斯政府持有50.23%的股份,该公司债券也是我们比较偏好的投资之一。本周Gazprom发行了欧元债券,筹资7.5亿欧元,收益率为2.25%。我们比较偏好以英镑或美元发行的债券,因为我们认为市场会进一步折价,以此实现货币政策正常化。例如,Gazprom以英镑发行的2024年到期的债券Gazprom Capital收益率为3.5%,根据我们的模型,其交易价格比所在等级低两档。

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