每日新闻更新 - 本周大事预报 The Daily Update - The week ahead

由于感恩节的原因,美国本周的工作日少了一天。今天欧盟外长和欧洲各国的外长将举行会谈,进一步讨论英国退欧问题。根据有关消息,英国梅首相可能会寻求内阁通过支付双倍“分手费”的决议,最初提出的脱欧费是200亿欧元。今天将揭晓欧洲银行管理局和欧洲药品管理局的总部新址。本周二美联储主席耶伦将在纽约与英国央行行长Mervyn King进行交谈,可能涉及芝加哥联储全国活动指数。本周三英国将发布预算报告;随着英国退欧担忧日渐突出,英国的经济发展预测将受到市场的关注。周三将公布11月第2次美联储公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议纪要,我们预期纪要内容不会有太大变化,12月加息仍在预期之中。普京总统将在俄罗斯索契主持叙利亚问题峰会,土耳其以及伊朗总统均会参加。美国10月份耐用品订单初步数据会被关注,市场预期为0.3%(先前是2%)。

由于感恩节的原因,本周四美国债券和股票市场将休市。根据美国联邦农业局的预测,感恩节将消费4600万只火鸡,每10人的平均聚餐费用降到2003年以来的最低水平。关于数据相关的新闻,本周欧洲将有多个国家的PMI数据发布,德国将发布今年第3季度GDP数据。周四,欧洲央行将发布会议纪要。OPEC的经济委员会成员将在11月30日的会议之前在维也纳见面;预期石油减产协议将延续到2019年中期。在黑色星期五日本将公布11月制造业PMI数据,德国将公布IFO数据,美国将公布Markit PMI数据。周五穆迪和标普将发布对南非的评估报告,揭晓该国的长期评级。目前标普和惠誉对南非的评级均为BB+,穆迪的评级是Baa3,这意味着如果再降一档,南非的长期评级就沦为垃圾等级。由于美国税改方案可能会进一步延迟,预期参议员会在下周进行投票;本周市场情绪仍较为温和。另外,本周德国执政联盟重组(可能重新大选)将收到市场关注,津巴布韦局势也将备受关注,穆加贝可能面临弹劾。

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