每日新闻更新 - 特朗普亚洲行 The Daily Update - Trump in Asia

一年前,全世界开始意识到特朗普可能成为美国第45任总统。从此之后,正如无党派人士所称的,特朗普发了“2470条微博,实现0条立法成就”。特朗普还进行了13次国事访问,而对他最喜欢的目的地——高尔夫球场到访了至少34次。

本周特朗普对亚洲各国进行国事访问,先是在日本和韩国进行了一系列会议和谈判,现在又出访中国。昨天在北京进行了习特会面,今天同李克强总理见面。明天将前往越南,然后去菲律宾,这都在一周内完成。本次亚洲之行共11天。

中美议程中很重要的一环是中美企业合作适宜以及朝鲜问题。尽管特朗普一定会继续恭维习主席并避免争议问题,例如同人权团体见面,但那些重要问题很难有真正的进展。100亿美元的企业合同对美国每年3500亿美元的贸易逆差几乎不会产生太大影响。

特朗普当选第一天就退出跨太平洋伙伴协议(TPP),也一定越来越意识到在贸易问题上不能对中国来硬的。保护主义大多会产生破坏性后果,尽管中国是全球最大的出口国,但也是全球第二大进口国,而且很可能在未来几年成为全球第一大进口国。考虑到中国最近大力宣传并承诺要增加国人的财富、提高生活水平以及在30年内成为全球主要的超级大国,没有哪个跨国企业愿意孤立于如此之大的获利机遇。上个月习近平曾豪言说:“中国力争在2050年前成为综合国力和国际影响力领先的国家,实现依法治国、企业创新、环境清洁、公共交通发达、中等收入群体壮大及城乡差距缩小等愿景”

也许到时,解决像贸易逆差这样的问题的更好方式就是鼓励并支持来自中国的投资、贸易以及税改,进一步互相开放市场、贸易和投资,在这样一个开放的好时代寻求同中国的合作。至于美国能从与中国合作中获得的经济利益,我们希望特朗普同习近平和李克强的会面能带来相应的结果,至少不再是愚蠢的评论或推文,特别是现在推特的发文总字数限制增到240个字符,要对推文进行限制也变难。

中国股票市场仍处于跌势,因此很多投资者面临着风险。这一切正在缓慢的变化着,9万亿美元的中国债券市场持乐观态度,证券成为更受大众追捧的主流投资。我们支持多支大型投资级中国信贷,并且根据我们的模型它们仍提供相对价值。这些债券一直到现在都表现不错,促进了低震荡和高收益,提供了高收益。我们支持的中国债券对高等级发券商提供更高的补偿,这些债券通常是准主权债券,定价考虑到了中国债市的一般风险,没有考虑到个体的信贷能力以及国家的正冲量。从全球来看,中国这些债券的价差较大,而全球投资人为获利通常从财政力量较弱的债权国买入疲软且不受国家支持的债券。以中国石化为例,这是一家国有企业,也是全球收入第二多的石油公司。该企业发行的2023年到期的债券久期为5年,到目前为止年回报率为6.2%,收益率为3%,价差为94点,而同等久期和等级的债券的价差仅为56点。根据我们的模型,这支评级A1的中国石化债券的价格比其等级低2档,按一般A3等级的债券价格进行交易。这仍为我们提供了相对价值,但同其他投资机遇相比,该债券的弹性吸引力开始减弱。

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