每日新闻更新 - 委内瑞拉:恩典之地再次违约 The Daily Update - Venezuela: The ‘Land of Grace’…periods and recurring defaults

当哥伦布从帕里亚湾第一次看到现在的委内瑞拉,赞叹道发现了“人间天堂”,并亲切地称它为“恩典之地”。但500年过去了,委内瑞拉的债务问题日益严重,经济问题就像境内的奥里诺科河一样冗长。现在唯一仍在讨论的“恩典”只剩下债务宽限期了。昨天委内瑞拉未能按期偿还到期票息,再次构成违约(尽管国际互换与衍生品协会尚未正式宣布其违约)。

自从1982年拉美债务危机以来,委内瑞拉已出现6-7次违约,这意味着每5年左右就出现一次违约。很多人在前总统查韦斯以及现总统马杜罗执政期间一起预期该国主权债务和/或委内瑞拉国家石油公司PDVSA出现违约。委内瑞拉上一次违约是在2004年,这13年的无违约期高于最近的历史平均水平,这出乎了很多人的意料。委内瑞拉常年饱受经济和政治管理失当带来的灾难,80年代达到最恶劣的境地,而现在由于石油产量下降以及油价相较当年减半,更让问题复杂化。现在看来,即使目前这样的处境也很再继续维持下去。

从经济机遇以及投资者期望的角度看,委内瑞拉都没能达到预期,1935年委内瑞拉成为拉美地区人均GDP最高的国家,80年代成为炙手可热的新兴市场,穆迪在1976-1983年对其给予了非常乐观的Aaa评级(尽管穆迪没有披露1987年之前的评级,称其可在历史文档中轻松查阅的到)。之后就是20年的经济震荡、政治危机、恶性暴乱以及蓄谋政变,彻底摧毁了这个国家以及投资者的希望之梦。现在按照所有的主流评级机构的标准,委内瑞拉都实际构成了违约,这不只反应了它未能按时偿债,也体现了对委内瑞拉未来也很有可能不具备偿债能力的预期。未来几年将有5支大额本金到期(2020年之前到期的本金超过48.5亿美元,其中有一半将在未来约12个月内到期)。

根据有关预测,委内瑞拉的Maracaibo Basin油田仍有超过3150亿桶石油储备,这相当于俄罗斯储油量的4倍,墨西哥的40倍,这让委内瑞拉成为世界上已知石油储备最大的国家,并将继续是全球最大的石油出口国之一。但在过去几年中,国家水平的产油量急剧下滑,从多年来的平均日产油量235万桶(2012-2015年)降到195万桶,更不要说从2015年开始已跌至一半的油价。石油收入的骤减,加上国内长期的政治僵局、超级通胀以及国际制裁,阻碍了任何可能进行经济重构以及债务再融资的可能,一切都已逼近最严重的关头。欧盟刚通过对委内瑞拉的经济制裁,包括实行武器禁运。而上周美国财政部通过了对委内瑞拉的进一步制裁决议。早在1902年委内瑞拉债务危机时,英国、德国和意大利三国舰队封锁委内瑞拉海岸,时任总统卡斯特罗拒绝偿付外债。

阿根廷用了16年才开始渐渐消除其2001年违约造成的痛苦和相关问题,阿当时的形势比委内瑞拉所面对的要好处理、更简单。委内瑞拉同中国达成的很多主要债务比其他债权国更具规模,因此中国面临的损失预期也更大,也许要等上一二十年才能有所补偿。

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