每日新闻更新 - 2018年展望 The Daily Update - 2018 Outlook

这是2017年最后一期《每日新闻更新》。在过去一年的文章中,我们预测2017年会有两次美联储加息,实际加息三次,十二个月过去了,我们仍预测美联储在未来12个月中会继续加息。

从广义上说,根据美国税改成果的不同,我们认为美联储会有2次或3次加息,联邦基金利率会在2%-2.25%的区间内,有一定对冲效果。我们也预期美国长期债券的收益率会继续下跌,并呈扁平化。10年期和30年期债券的收益率将在2.25%左右,可能会进一步降低。通胀预期是我们战略的关键;短期会有小幅上涨,但我们认为市场已经考虑了这一因素。长期通胀展望较为积极,长期优质债券收益看好。我们将继续关注通胀状况,并进行相应的应对。

我们对2018年很乐观,评级较优的债券价差将继续收紧,因此我们将保持多头以及较高的平均信用位置。

我们在根西岛的人民币基金已经建立十年,表现卓越,收益率已经增长了15%。预期我们的债券组合中的人民币将继续增值,实际上我们因买入三种有回报的货币,并从人民币中获利。这也有助于缓解货币相关风险。随着管制进一步放松以及人民币的接受程度提高,我们预期未来几年人民币将继续升值。

下一期《每日新闻更新》将从1月8日开始,我们的团队将带来更多业内洞察。

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