每日新闻更新 - The Daily Update

我们一直认为美国国债收益率曲线会长期扁平化。该曲线非常重要,因为所有美元信用价差均以该曲线为衡量基准。今年六月底以来,在将近五个多月的时间里,2年期和10年期国债价差收紧了36点,现在仅为56点,而5年期和30年期价差收紧了31点,仅为63点,这让收益曲线出现了显著的扁平化。现在我们已经很清楚的看到,关于通胀预期以及美联储的紧缩政策,市场和美联储显然没有达成共识。我们认为下周基金利率会再收紧25点,这对长期债券来说有积极作用,因为能进一步减少通胀风险。

然而,美国国债收益率曲线扁平化的速度已经加剧。从11月中期开始,仅在三周的时间内,2年期和10年期国债价差收紧了12点,5年期和30年期的价差收紧了14点。同纽约的美国国债柜台的朋友交流后,我们认为美国长期国债的购买需求可能会增加。我们认为近期收益率曲线扁平化加剧的原因之一是,美国在预期税改推行之前要对养老金进行预先融资。税改方案仍有待立法人员批准,但预期会在新年之前通过。现在对养老金进行预先融资,美国企业可按目前的抵扣率缴纳,但一旦引入新的减税法案,目前的抵扣率将不再适用。因此,在税改方案推行前对美国长期国债市场进行预融资可能对美国企业带来税收福利。

今天发布了2017年最后一次非农就业数据。非农就业人数为22.8万,略高于预期;失业率保持不变,仍为4.1%;平均时薪增长了0.2%,同比增长2.5%,略低于预期。因此,整体数据较为强劲,对过去两个月的就业数据修订仅为3000,参与率保持在62.7%。我们认为这基本可以保证美联储在下周会再收紧25点。

Please read this important information before proceeding. It contains legal and regulatory notices relevant to the information on this site.

This website provides information about Stratton Street Capital LLP ("Stratton Street"). Stratton Street is authorised and regulated by the UK's Financial Conduct Authority. The content of this website has been prepared by Stratton Street from its records and is believed to be accurate but we do not accept any liability or responsibility in respect of the information of any views expressed herein. The information, material and content provided in the pages of this website may be changed at any time by us. Information on this website may be out of date and may not be updated or removed.

The website is provided for the main purpose of providing generic information on Stratton Street and on our investment philosophy for the use of financial professionals in the United Kingdom that qualify as Professional Clients or Eligible Counterparties under the rules of the United Kingdom Financial Conduct Authority (the "FCA"). The information in this website is not intended for the use of and should not be relied on by any person who would qualify as a Retail Client. Products and services referred to on this website are offered only at times when, and in jurisdictions where, they may be lawfully offered. The information on this website is not directed to any person in the United States. The provision of the information on this website does not constitute an offer to purchase securities to any person in the United States (other than a professional fiduciary acting for the account of a non-U.S person) or to any U.S. person as such term is defined under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended.

The website is not intended to offer investors the opportunity to invest in any Alternative Investment Fund ("AIF") product. The AIFs managed by Stratton Street are not being marketed in the European Economic Area ("EEA") and any eligible potential investor from the EEA who wishes to obtain information on the AIFs will only be provided with materials upon receipt by Stratton Street of an appropriate reverse solicitation request in accordance with the requirements of the EU Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive ("AIFMD") and national law in their home jurisdiction. By proceeding you confirm that you are not accessing this website in the context of a potential investment by an EEA investor in the AIFs managed by Stratton Street and that you have read, understood and agree to these terms.

No information contained in this website should be deemed to constitute the provision of financial, investment or other professional advice in any way. The website should not be relied upon as including sufficient information to support any investment decision. If you are in doubt as to the appropriate course of action we recommend that you consult your own independent financial adviser, stockbroker, solicitor, accountant or other professional adviser. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. The value of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up. An application for any investment or service referred to on this site may only be made on the basis of the offer document, key features, prospectus or other applicable terms relating to the specific investment or service.

Where we provide hypertext links to other locations on the Internet, we do so for information purposes only. We are not responsible for the content of any other websites or pages linked to or linking to this website. We have not verified the content of any such websites. Such websites may contain products and services that are not authorised in your jurisdiction. Following links to any other websites or pages shall be at your own risk and we shall not be responsible or liable for any damages or in other way in connection with linking.

By using this site, you should be aware that we may disclose any information that we hold about you to any regulatory authority to which we are subject, or to any person legally empowered to require such information.

This website uses cookies to improve user experience, by clicking the "I Accept" button below means you consent to the use of cookies on our website.