每日新闻更新 - 经济学家调查 The Daily Update - Economist survey

今年11月6日至15日期间,全美商业经济协会就共和党支持的减税方案对经济的影响进行了调查,调查结果多少有些出人意料,大部分受调查的经济学家认为2018年经济增长会提高0.2%-0.39%,五分之一认为会高于这个区间,五分之一认为税改对经济没有任何好处。当然,该调查是一个月前进行的,这之后税改方案为获得批准做了一定程度的调整。

该调查还显示,略微多数受调查者预期美国会在2019年年底之前出现经济衰退,48%的受调查者认为经济增长会持续到2020年,并认为贸易保护主义是经济增长的首要风险,其次是股市抛售和高利率。

78%的经济学家预期税改方案将在2018年上半年推行,但只有35%的经济学家认为特朗普政府的基础设施投资计划会在明年启动,只有37%的经济学家认为该税改方案在本届政府期内根本不会推行。

目前经济一直在扩展但工资却迟迟未能增长,这是讨论了很久但却始终没有解决的问题,即使就业市场看上去很吃紧。对此,30%的经济学家认为生产力增长缓慢是其中的原因,27%的经济学家认为这是由于通胀水平较低导致的,19%的经济学家认为这是由于人口分布和老龄化。然而,所有经济学家都对调查中的每个问题增加了另一角度的补充意见。

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