每日新闻更新 - 美联储 The Daily Update - Fed

特朗普总统对美联储理事会成员的提名仍在进行中,昨晚提名了卡耐基梅隆大学教授、知名经济学家马文·古德弗兰德(Marvin Goodfriend)。如果参议院通过该提名,古德弗兰德将加入理事会。提名的杰罗姆·鲍威尔(Jerome Powell)将在明年二月珍妮特·耶伦(Janet Yellen)离任后接任美联储主席,兰道尔·考利斯(Randal Quarles)将担任金融监督副主席。这样一来,理事会七成员中仍有两个空位,耶伦离任后将有三个空位。

过去几年古德弗兰德一直批评美联储的决策,并曾公开批评伯南克的量化宽松政策,在今年三月国会分委会证词中,他表示“美联储未能确保通胀目标的可信性”,并详细阐述了这所引发的风险。有观点认为,由于下任主席鲍威尔没有经济学博士学位,古德弗兰德渊博的经济学背景将让他成为委员会的关键人物。在利率方面,今年早些时候他曾表示:“长期实际利率压低的形势不会立即消失,如果近期全球进入经济衰退,零利率问题可能会卷土重来,我认为央行应做好准备,不要冒昧行事。”有报道称,他认为美联储应该像应对过度通胀一样预防通货紧缩。

我们会继续关注美联储的动向,然而,在联邦基金目标利率问题上,新一届理事成员似乎会延续现在的政策。我们仍预期12月13日的美联储会议将宣布加息,届时利率可能提高到1.5%。然而,关于2018年加息状况,我们却有不同的观点。我们认为最近的四次加息会破坏了目前某些领域仍较为疲软的经济,尽管经济在过去八年不断扩张,但这种通胀前景并不能合理化这些做法。

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