每日新闻更新 - 芬兰百年独立:人口老龄化,国债过于昂贵 The Daily Update - Finland 100 year's old : Increasingly expensive with age

100年前,1917年12月6日,芬兰宣布从苏联独立,今年正值独立一百周年,芬兰一整年都在庆祝自己的文化和国家独立:从避暑别墅到育婴箱,从作为全球最稳定的政治体之一到作为欧洲最好的教育体系。穆迪和标普对芬兰的评级为Aa1/AA+。根据我们的净外国资产模型,芬兰为4星评级,这意味着该国既没有积累大量的净外国资产,也没有太多债务。但从投资者的角度来看,该国值得关注的价值并不高:国债收益率曲线位于负值区域历时高达7年,30年期收益率低于1.2%,对美国国债的价差仅有11点,价格非常昂贵。而阿布扎比30年期国债对美国国债的价差达140点,评级仅比芬兰第一档,为Aa2/AA。

芬兰也面临一些问题。最知名的评论来自BMI,称芬兰是欧洲的“病人”,“数年来经济萧条,是欧元区经济增长表现最差的国家之一”。到2019年,GDP增长似乎将从1.9%降到1.3%,人口迅速老龄化。十年前诺基亚失去了市场霸主的地位(诺基亚的经济贡献一度占到芬兰GDP的25%),现在该地区几乎没有多少能引起市场兴趣的领域,830英里长的边界面对虎视眈眈的老大哥俄罗斯。

虽然芬兰的境况不完全等同于波罗的海地区,但我们必须记住,该地区的一些历史同俄罗斯紧密相连,也不要忘记为什么芬兰始终坚持中立,不加入北约,并同俄罗斯保持着务实的关系。北方战争后苏联控制该地区达200年,1905年俄国大革命的影响在一战后体现了出来,先是芬兰宣布独立,接着是乌克兰、拉脱维亚、爱沙尼亚和立陶宛。上世纪40年代苏联再次占领波罗的海地区,接着是德国纳粹“解放”该地区,然后红军再次占领,虽然芬兰没有牵涉其中,但国内却经历了内战,1939年到1944年间同苏联发生了战争,并一直谨慎提防着这个贪婪的邻居。我们认为100年的历史并不能让芬兰获得有利的评级。收益率曲线基本在负值区域以及仅为11点的价差水平,这让该国国债非常昂贵,不足以抵消潜在风险。

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