每日新闻更新 - 不断繁荣的泰国 The Daily Update - Thailand's 'Progressive Prosperity'

世界银行一篇题为《顺势而行:21世纪东亚奇迹》的文章中将泰国升级为“不断繁荣”的国家,“消除了收入贫困,大幅增加了中产家庭的比例”。该文章也进一步强调,“一波繁荣发展的景象已经遍布东亚。今天,东亚每五个人就有三人拥有经济安全,极少会面临贫困的风险。东亚大部分国家已经出现了稳固的中产阶层。”同时,泰国经济实现了自2013年第一季度以来的最快发展速度,2017年第3季度GDP同比增长4.3%,高于去年的3.7%,出口以及旅游业的发展促进了泰国经济的增长。

老读者已经知道,我们Stratton Street只投资净国外资产(NFA)占GDP比重高的国家;我们自己执行的基准是三星,即NFA不能低于GDP的-50%。按照这个标准,泰国大大高出基准,按照我们的模型进行评级,泰国属于4星,即NFA占GDP的比重位于-25%和+25%之间。泰国属于Baa1/BBB+投资等级,完全符合我们的可投资国家范畴。然而,我们也是价值投资者,泰国在这一领域表现不尽人意。

从相对价值的角度看,泰国发行的投资等级的硬通货债券价差约为45,价差缓冲很小。之前我们持有曼谷银行2023年到期、票息为5%、价差为235点的债券,2013年时我们算得该A3评级的债券拥有两档缓冲。然而,最近该债券的价差变为85点,预期回报和收益率仅为2.1%,市场实际将这支Baa1的债券按照A3进行交易,价格至少高1档。即使查看曼谷银行的长期收益曲线,2029年到期、票息为9.025%、评级为Baa2的债券有1.5档缓冲,预期收益率和回报率为8.2%,该债券总资金额仅为4.5亿美元,因此也不符合我们的投资标准。我们更青睐Aa2级的科威特国债,该债券2027年到期,票息为3.5%,总筹资额为45亿美元,预期回报率和收益率为6.5%,有3档以上的信用缓冲,即市场按照A2/A3等级进行交易。

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