每日新闻更新 - 美联储 The Daily Update - The Fed

美联储将联邦基金利率的目标区间提高了25个基本点至1.25%-1.5%。有趣的是,这次芝加哥联储银行行长Charles Evans和明尼苏达州联储银行行长Neel Kashkari都反对这个决定,尽管两者都不会成为2018年联储委员会的“投票人”。

从市场角度来看,更新后的经济预期数据也很有趣。联邦资金利率中位数预期保持不变,预期2018年出现三次25点加息,2019年出现两次。重要的是,尽管对委员会增长预测有一些上行修订,劳动力市场的疲软状况减少,委员会对核心个人消费支出通胀的中期预测保持不变,2018年为1.9%,2019年为2%。根据耶伦的说法,大部分参与者都考虑到一些财政刺激因素以及金融状况的改变:2018年第4季度GDP中位数同比增长预期上调了0.4%至2.5%,2019年从2%调至2.1%。委员会还将2018年和2019年的失业率从4.1%下调至3.9%。

明年美联储委员会将出现众多人事调整:地区投票委员会成员中有4位将进行年度轮换,虽然纽约美联储银行行长是终生投票人,但现任的William Dudley将到2018年年中退休。另外,美联储委员会的7个理事的名额中,还有3个潜在职位有待提名(包括明年二月任满的现任主席耶伦的职位,目前假定Marvin Goodfriend的主席提名获得通过)。

我们认为加息预期很强劲,预期加息节奏将在2018年下半年有所放缓,因为之前的加息和资产负债表开始发挥作用。我们预期美联储将领先收益率曲线,而收益率曲线将会扁平,我们将继续支持多头。

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