每日新闻更新- 英国通货膨胀展望 The Daily Update - UK inflation outlook

昨天发布的数据显示,英国通货膨胀增长速度达到同比3.1%,接近5年以来的最高值,这引起一片喧嚣之声,临近圣诞,加上媒体的大力宣传,更增加了热烈反应,但有担心认为这种高通胀可能会持续。去年圣诞(以及2015年和2016年大部分时间),Mark Carney致信英国财政大臣,因为当时的通胀水平持续低于1%。但今年通胀增速却高于工资增长水平,这很显然今年不是每个人都能收到圣诞礼物。

如果说圣诞礼物是指一款电脑游戏或者国外度假机票,那就的确很难如愿了,因为这些是拉高CPI指数的主要贡献元素。仅交通一项就为通胀水平贡献了0.7%(尽管低于十月份的环比水平),但从更基本的来说,食品价格的增长是造成通胀增长的第三大因素,贡献了0.41%的通胀增速,影响了消费者的生活,娱乐休闲是第二大元素,贡献了0.46%的通胀增速。金融服务成本等项目术语拉低通胀增速的元素,但这些项目对那些受通胀影响最大的群体来说并不那么重要,但对像我们这样从事金融服务的群体来说就不太好过了。也许受影响最大的不只是消费者,也包括零售行业,他们可能不得不降价来吸引顾客。

但看上去这种通胀增速状态很不像会持续的样子。回想2016年6月底退欧公投,英镑紧接着出现剧烈贬值,这对不同行业的影响也很滞后,很多经济学家预期目前的CPI水平已接近或达到峰值。同CPI核心数据紧密相关的因素是贸易加权英镑指数,该指数已连续12个月增长。这在12个月前达到峰值,核心通胀数据也如此,英镑一直保持目前水平,通胀将回落到1%以下的水平,所以明年圣诞节财政大臣可能会再收到信件询问为什么通货膨胀低于而不是高于目标值。

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