每日更新 - 希腊退欧恐惧袭来 The Daily Update - Grexit fears return

希腊2年期债券收益率昨天触及9.5%,这是因为国际货币基金组织一份令人沮丧的报告重新引发了国际货币基金组织和欧盟债权人之间的争端。欧洲和市场总体都继续假设国际货币基金组织最终将加入希腊的第三个救助计划,而在过去三年中,该计划完全归欧洲稳定机制(ESM)负责。国际货币基金组织本决定在2016年年底前参与,但继续弃权,同时争取1.5%的初级盈余 –还好不是按欧洲委员会要求的到2018年实现3.5%的“不现实”目标 –因为这将需要其它欧元区国家大量减免债务。

在5个月内其所欠债务达70亿欧元,因而在此之前需要另一轮救助,而最近的争端显然加剧了困难;要知道在过去两年的谈判中达成的共识还很少。德国官员警告说,没有国际货币基金组织,整个救援计划就会被摧毁。随着政府债务已经达到国内生产总值的180%,国际货币基金组织预测这一负债在2022年后向“爆炸性”方向发展。

那些反对国际货币基金组织担忧者表示,他们尚未充分考虑希腊经济中最近的改善,这些改善在增加税收收入和预期经济将在今年10年以来首次增长超过2%的背景下是引人注目的;当然这是自危机以来实际产出下降四分之一以上,并在过去两年接近最低点之后才有的事。此次衰退犹如美国大萧条一样深远,但与30年代比较稍逊不幸的是,美国在7年内恢复生产力,同样亚洲经济在97年的亚洲危机后4年内恢复生产力。希腊危机已经持续了8年,所以很多人希望恢复只是时间的问题。但仅仅其经济停止萎缩,并没有给出正当的理由相信其会保持长期的增长趋势。面对失业,沮丧的国内消费,全球长期停滞,以及不给力的政策,希腊前景并不乐观。

再次讨论的问题之一是假如希腊退欧和恢复德拉克马将带来的希腊债务重整的风险。这当然不再是希腊本身的首选方案(也许为了通胀冲销债务而恢复货币主权是2010年时最佳的选择,但这一机会已经错过了)。诸多人关注希腊,但比起根据英国法的希腊国际债务,这可能不是问题。因此,如果欧洲项目确实崩溃,至少那些持有希腊债务的人会得到资金,从而收回欧元。我们当然仍然厌恶几乎所有欧洲政府债务,因为其缺乏价值或过度并存在定价不足的风险。十年前,当希腊仍然是A1级,可以以1%利率借入2年期债务,4%利率借入10年期债务时,我们警告他们预防净外债过多。在采用欧元后,希腊债务迅速膨胀-因为市场错误地将各种以欧元计价的政府债务联系起来。

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