每日更新 - 南方铜业公司,铁矿石 The Daily Update - Southern copper, iron core

今天早上人们对商品空间的关注升级,因为铁矿石价格自去年10月中旬以来价格上涨近60%后,价格可能将大幅下跌。

上述情况主要原因是储备大量增加,特别是在中国。中国港口库存上周上涨1.235亿吨,占港口吞吐量的75%左右。全面来看,据报道,另外2000万吨将带来90%的产能。其原因在于生产商与供应商根据去年第四季度价格上涨过度计算了需求。虽然中国的需求预计今年将保持平稳,但之前在2016年的经济增长确实看到供不应求的情况,并且有些人认为生产者尚保守,因而随着价格上涨生产者蜂拥生产。然而,中国需求已经稳定,生产已经高于需求,许多市场分析师预测,随着股票持续增长,铁矿石将调整约30-50%。

我们的投资组合中很少面向铁矿石生产商和供应商,但是我们会向铜开放;主要是通过在南方铜业公司持有我们的全球债券基金。这家美国公司总部位于亚利桑那州凤凰城,其主要在秘鲁和智利开展采矿活动。

自2016年10月中旬以来,铜价也上涨了约24%,远低于铁矿石价格,并且与其失控走势相比,似乎有更好的条件来支持最近的价格。在此背景下,我们持有南方铜业公司利率7.5%2035年7月到期债券,其评级为BBB / BBB +,表现非常好,是目前在11月初特朗普选举抛售之后交易较好的少数债券之一。

从广义上讲,该债券自选举以来已上涨9点,并将继续提供有吸引力的风险调整值。目前以美国国库券约300基点的价差交易,该债券相较于红宝石经理约145基点的公允价值价差,仍然处于4.3信用等级,如果其趋向公允价值,这相当于22.3%的预期收益率。当然,5.6%的收益是任何投资组合所欣然接受的。

我们不断地在投资组合中搜索轮换候选对象,因为一些名称变换更快,或者个别公司/政府发行人会受其特点影响,比如进一步供应或新闻会影响利润。然而,找到南方铜业控股公司的候选对象将具有挑战性,因为其目前在风险/回报基础上报酬丰厚。

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