每日更新 - 什么时候储备足够?The Daily Update - When are reserves enough...?

中国的外汇储备1月跌至2.9982万亿美元,但这一数字目前仍然非常可观。虽然是全球最大的储备,跌破3万亿美元的心理门槛,已经动摇了一些市场参与者,尽管同样的评论人士说,该国的储备保持约4万亿美元,可谓太多!只有中国官员知道储备的组成结构,储备的下降一方面是人民币保护政策导致的,但同时也受到大幅的货币波动及外汇估值的巨大影响。截止撰文时,自去年6月以来,英镑兑岸上人民币下跌12.6%,兑美元下跌16.5%。

中国决策者现在正努力遏制以前无意义的资本外流现象,有必要支持人民币对抗新扩张的中国外汇交易中心篮子了。改革货币和财政政策的积极措施虽然可以控制金融风险并打击腐败,但令“热钱”远离大陆。当然,这是现下一个令人担忧的问题,因此中国决策者不得不将外汇注入国内市场以走强人民币。然而,热钱资金并不是无穷无尽的,因此我们预计资本流出的速度会放缓。 如此一来,外储将减持。总而言之,如果不是用来保护市场动荡时期的一国货币,储备再多也无益。

那多少储备才够呢?据国际货币基金组织的外储持有指标计算,2.6万亿美元-2.8万亿美元是足够的。但有人认为,储备能够来满足一个国家的短期外债或三个月的进口需求,就算足够了。国家外汇管理局最近的数据显示,中国3个月进口额约为4000亿美元,短期外债介于8000-9000亿美元之间; 如此看来,中国的储备绰绰有余。既然人民币现在被列为储备货币,那么中国还有持有储备的必要吗?最近公布的数字表明,由于市场动荡,美国和局势紧张的欧元区仅仅分别持有约1160亿美元和3440亿美元的储备。

当然外界仍然担心中国人民银行将继续保护人民币,使其免于折旧贸易,但这实际上证明,中国并不希望人民币继续下跌,这和自由世界的领导者所暗示的观点如出一辙。从长远看,我们认为:无论是兑美元、欧元、英镑还是其他货币,人民币都将持续走强。所以既然有如此庞大的储备,为什么不趁现在的汇率水平大量抛售呢?

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