每日更新 - 美国的疑虑更新 The Daily Update - A renewal of American doubts

昨天总统川普(Trump)向国会发表了他第一次的演讲。在一个比我们最近习惯但更加精巧和热情的演讲中,他进一步寻求他政策的支持,其中包括(按计划实施的大致顺序):废除奧巴馬医改(Obamacare)、税务改革、放松管制和基础设施投资。当然,他希望美国的“长城”能够跳过排队来帮助迅速解决威胁美国家庭和工人安全和福利的毒品以及意识到的移民问题。虽然估计长城成本落在10-20亿美元之间,但该计划的成本效率和解决这些问题的有效性是很难令人接受的(例如,40%的墨西哥移民搭飞机来,而且多数共识认为此墙能非常有限地来控制毒品流入问题 )。

这个政策优先次序比政府优先考虑更有必要性。因为它们必须在全面推行有利于中产阶级,并且在税制改革有机会通过众议院和参议院之前,来做出良好的努力来解决昂贵的医疗改革。提供这些东西将使额外的基础设施支出更容易成功获得。

但是,魔鬼一如既往的在细节上,并像新的白宫一样激进,他们需要来自希拉里(Hill)足够的支持。到目前为止只有行政命令,而且我们已经看到可以废除的。即使共和党拥有席位的数目,仍然难以在他们不喜欢的奥巴马医改上找到妥协,更不用提及其他政策倡议。由于共和党人在这个问题上的分歧,已经使国会缓慢移动。虽然一些现有方面拥有强有力的支持,像是为那些具有预先存在条件的;一些新的方面有共同的支持,如“跨州线自由购买健康保险”,得到了共和党人的热烈掌声;但是有许多方面,行政管理并不能找到共识。保健税收抵免是川普在他的演讲中提出的一个例子,但保守派强烈反对。找到足够的共同点明的时间明显比许多人预期的要来长得多。

希拉里·克林顿(Hillary Clinton)以前有一个口号为“建立桥梁,而不是長城”的譴責活動,但某种程度上看來,川普正试图建立两者。川普在讲话中说,“美国愿意找到新朋友、建立新的伙伴关系,来共同的利益结合在一起。此外,在国内,川普一次又一次地呼吁统一的两党制阵线,说到“我们必须建立合作和信任的桥梁,而不是驱动分裂的楔子”。

但是在“美国精神复兴”(他的演讲标题)的所有这一愿景的背后,仍然缺乏有远见的细节:市场和美国人民越来越焦虑,因为这些日子越来越焦虑。鉴于“股票市场自11月8日选举以来已经获得了近3万亿美元的价值,并创下了历史新高。如果这种缺乏特异性继续存在,会有对对这些估值的担忧,主要基于乐观的短期增长预期,将回到对较低长期增长的担忧:长期增长自川普当选以来变化不大或可能恶化性。

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