每日更新 - 智利 The Daily Update - Chile

在主要政党在7月初选后,第一轮智利总统选举将于2017年11月19日星期日举行 。现任总统巴切莱特(Bachelet)即将担任届满两期,因此根据智利宪法将不再有资格参选,但从她的在第二个任期中支持率大幅下降,选民们已经做好改变的准备。她不仅没有得到养老金和教育支持,而且最近的野火摧毁了50多万公顷的土地更加深选民的关注。

前总统塞巴斯蒂安·皮涅拉 (Sebastian Piñera 2010-2014在位)是反对党“智利第一”(Chile Vamos)的领先右派候选人。到目前为止,其他右派候选人,像是参议员何塞·奥桑德森(Manuel José Ossandón)和费利佩·卡斯特 (Felipe Kast)似乎不可能赢得右派提名。现在只是选战初期,根据最近的一次调查指出,皮涅拉目前领导整体民意调查6%,领先他的主要左派对手参议员亚历杭德‧罗吉利耶(Alejandro Guillier) 。

罗吉利耶,一位从记者关变成的参议员,已接受中央左派激进派的提名,并预计在7月份的初选中被选为左倾新多数党(Nueva Mayoria)的候选人(因为现任总统巴切莱特无法继任)。他的支持度虽然近来有所放缓,但自10月以来,由于经济增长放缓,使得大众对巴切莱特行政当局没有对养老金制度进行改革加上也没有进行改革以提高教育的负担能力,感到失望。里卡多·拉戈斯(Ricardo Lagos)于2000年至2006年期间担任总统,身为中左派民主党(PPD),是吉利尔在确保新多数党提名罗吉利耶的主要竞争对手;他赞成基础设施投资、养老金和教育改革以及提高生产力和增长的措施。但他目前正在试选民支持度水温。

不平等不断增长加剧了选民不满情绪:中央银行对2月经济预期的调查指出,估计2017年GDP为1.9%,比上个月下降2%,虽然仍然持续恢复到2018年的2.5%。这是很大的减速,因为实际上国内生场总值(GDP)在2010-2015年平均为3.6%。虽然中央银行在2月份的会议上将利率维持在3.25%不变,但是,在1月份下调了25个基点后,它发现“在最可能的情况下,有必要增加货币冲击”。高收入水平智利的平等正在加剧经济合作与发展组织工作(OECD)经济增长缓慢的影响,并将智利列入其收入不平等名单上的首位。

尽管如此,虽然智利面临政策挑战,但是穆迪(Moody)认为其信用强度低(估计2017年国内生产总值为25%)、财政灵活性和稳定及谨慎的宏观经济政策历史。鉴于智利在NFA排名(4星级)中的强势地位,我们继续通过铜生产商Codelco(此为智利政府100%拥有)获得最好的评比A1 。举例来说,Codelco 的4.875%2044收益率为4.63%或约3.4个信用缺口,在我们模式上赢得低价 。

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