每日更新 - 中国经济前景改善 The Daily Update - China's improving economic outlook

中国硬/软着陆的风险已经下降,1月份强劲的经济数据显示,该国经济前景持续改善。出口以美元计算,从12月的3.1%同比增长16.7%,击败市场增长预期10%,同时进口保持强劲,维持在7.9%,再次击败市场共识。通货膨胀数字也令人惊讶的上涨; 工业品出厂价格指数至2011年3月以来上涨6.9%到达最高水平,而消费物价指数从12月的2.1%同比上涨2.5%。“季节性因素”可能助长了这一令人鼓舞的贸易数据;1月份开始的为期一周的农历新年推动了这一数据。

过去10个月工业品出厂价格指数上涨10%可能是由于一些积极因素引起,包括:商品空间反弹(铁矿石飙升到空前最高纪录和石油低谷反弹),政策制定者采取措施阻止工业产能过剩,房地产和基础设施投资和信贷刺激。我们不关注工业品出厂价格指数是否预计在本季度会进一步上升,而是怀疑中国央行更紧缩的货币政策目标将受到阻挠;因为他们继续努力打击经济内的金融风险。

特朗普在与中国总统习近平的首次接触中同意尊重中国的“一个中国政策”,这也推动了人们的支持情绪。作为中美关系的基石,一个中国政策可追溯到20世纪70年代,其认为中国和台湾隶属于同一个政府。

在就职之前,当对一个中国政策的相关性提出质疑时,特朗普总统引发了一系列贸易战争问题,并称蔡英文台湾总统;自从吉米·卡特总统于1979年暂停关系以来,在位总统从没有这样声称过。不幸的是,这显示了这位新美国总统的绝对不可预测性,绝不意味着美国与其最大贸易伙伴之间的贸易争端陷入绝境;但是,两国之间更好的合作减少了人们对人民币兑美元汇率从月高点恢复的担忧。

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