每日更新 - 美联储 The Daily Update - Fed

离下一次3月15日的联储会议上只有两个多星期,而显而易见的是,所有的美联储发言人持续强调3月确实是一个现场会议。也很显而易见的是,市场还是不信任,并且仍然只是定价在40%的机会加息。在会议的五天前,我们得到下一个非农就业报告,而且通货膨胀数据将在宣布决定之前的个小时前来做公布;市场认为这些数据与美联储会议时间太接近,并且任何行动都可能导致不可预测的波动。克利夫兰总统梅斯特(Mester)上星期说“我们肯定不想惊动市场。

事实上,在2015年和2016年12月的会议上,市场的定价是74%和100%,只有23个与美联储债券交易商中的一个,在下个月要求更高的利率,这似乎會給3月一个惊喜。这将决定推到至到5月3日的会议上,但该会议之后不是一次新闻发布会,而是在法国大选的第1和第2轮之间,所以这被认为也不太可能;当然市场也可能是错误的。一位分析师回到美联储公布1994年底的基金利率、191次会议,并发现在这段时间,美联储从来没有拥有惊讶市场的加息。他们审视了在每次会议前三个星期的市场预期,并将赔率定在50%以上,来作为美联储可能移动的水平。

美联储今年上涨三点,而且市场将6月作为第一个可能的上涨,数据和川普(Trump)盛行,那么美联储可能被迫进入一个有点难以实现自己的预测。但是,从英国脱欧(Brexit)、川普和潘(Le Pen)看来,强烈地教导教我们什么都是有可能的。

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