每日更新 - 联邦证词 The Daily Update - Fed testimony

昨天美联储主席珍妮特·耶伦(Janet Yellen)的强硬证词将道琼斯指数和SP500指数升至新的历史最高点,加上美元和全球股票市场反弹,来推动国债收益率超过2.5%。市场似乎关注她最近正在改进经济上的数据 – 因而得出一个共识,也就是6月(或甚至有可能3月 )的利率上升可能发生。然而,耶伦也强调对不确定的经济形势提出警惕;特别是对当前行政部门通过进一步不可持续的财政刺激,来促进增长计划相关的风险和“相当大的不确定性”。相形之下,她强调“提高长期经济增长步伐的重要性”。

对美联储有关最终削减量化宽松再投资政策的议程极少提及 – 这些市场已被固定。然而,有些人认为,在保证之下,无论何时来开始,這都会逐步来被完成,加上美联储资产负债表中很大一部分是长期抵押债券和国债。这包括圣路易斯联邦储备银行副总裁斯蒂芬·威廉姆森(St. Louise Fed),表示迈向政策正常化的步骤不会像许多人预期的那样有害或紧缩。

还有一个担忧,就是在1950 - 1981年期间,当国库券产量从2%上升到15%时,与现在情况相似。然而,这对比室很少见的。事实上,过去三个世纪的英国和美国的收益率是过去50年间的差异;而另外两个半世纪 - 当经济和人口增长前景远远高于今天 - 产量通常与当前水平一致,而不是50年代和60年代的爆发。包括在适当调整政策之间许多其他事情中的2次石油冲击和美联已被羁绊15年。

从美国经济 (历史和未来)以及美联储目前的评论和决定的长期角度来看,可能是受到被视为领先于曲线重要性所驱使,而不是受到推高产量和加速增长的第一步所驱使。鉴于市场一直高估近年美联储基金加息的步伐,以及长期经济增长前景(甚至相反)上的短期有形改善来看,有可能不仅美联储政策路径,很多已经在财政部和债券市场进行,而且短期看涨情绪(看跌债券)和反映股本指数高点将无法续时间的考验。由于全球增长潜力并没有显着增加,加上全球去杠杆化的成效也不大,我们继续支持提供高于平均收益率和有吸引力之风险调整回报的优质债权债券。

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