每日更新 - 法国总统大选 The Daily Update - French Presidential election

法国总统选举正形成一个有各种各样惊喜的漫长过程,但它还没有进行第一轮投票。一个星期前,艾曼纽‧马控(Emmanuel Macron)看起来有在五月第二轮选秀中面对玛琳‧潘(Marine Le Pen)的最好机,特别是在法兰西‧斐林(François Fillon)的投票受到Penelope-gate丑闻中受到打击后。 。然后,有一个故事,左派的候选人般尼特‧汉梦(Benoît Hamon)和珍-路克‧马龙欠(Jean-Luc Mélenchon)正在试著与另一个左派代表候选人来联盟,但这个失败,基于他们目前的轮询分数,留下两个面临的第一轮淘汰的前景, 。但在政治中,很多事情可以在一个星期中做改变。

马控的评语受到压力;一个不经过考虑的意见表明,阿尔及利亚的法国殖民统治类似于“反对人性的犯罪”显示他的政治缺乏经验,毕竟39岁的他,在总统大选中,是最年轻的候选人之一。根据2月21日星期二的Elabe民调,斐林开始再次获得21%的支持,而马控的投票从18.5,下降5%。

在这篇史诗的下一章:昨天,波城市长弗朗索瓦·贝鲁(François Bayrou)宣布他已经向马控提出了联盟。他说:需要“特殊反应”,因为该国处于“极端风险”,但很明显,这就是“联盟”,而不是中枢议程的征服。拜鲁( Bayrou)在2002、2007年和2012年参选总统,但在这次选举中选择了最初支持艾伦‧桥佩(Alain Juppé)为候选人,他最终失去了在斐林在右派的初选。显然,这大大加强了马控火力:加上拜鲁的5-6%支持与马控的联盟可以获得足够的投票赢得第一轮投票和面对第二轮的潘。

潘仍于第一轮投票领先,比拜鲁宣布之前有28%的支持率。但民调显示,在第二轮选举中,她会输给斐林或马控,他们分别占56%和59%的选票率。然而,随着乐笔一直在增长势头,它可能会变得接近:选举在这个阶段是非常开放的,增加投资者的紧张度。

在拜鲁公告之前,10年期OAT的收益率上升到约1.09%,以到达爱尔兰10年期的1.06%交易之上。只是把法国被评为Aa2 / AA由穆迪/惠誉和爱尔兰评级为A3 / A。市场对拜鲁与马控联盟的反应在某种程度上被视为降低了风险,OAT 10年收益率在此时低于1%。然而,我们怀疑这个长期过程远远没有结束。 马控作为一个独立的运行与新创建的马尔凯运动 (En Marche),其目前在议会没有席位,虽然他说他将在所有选区的候选人。如果他当选,进一步的不确定性很可能会继续存在,因为不清楚他的政府如果没有政治多数,是會多么有效率。在当前的议会中,拜鲁的民主运动只控制了总共577个中的2个席位。在法国,议会选举是在总统大选之后,将于6月到期在他将拥有共和党在议会的支持的意义上,斐林总统职位有可能提供更多的稳定性, 。但是,随着选举辩论的开始,投票还有不定数,马控需要详细说明他的政策。.

明显可见的是,政治风险是并且可能仍然是推动欧洲债券市场的关键因素。对我们来说,尽管它们在年初的表现不佳,这是一个容易避免的风险;但我们仍然努力寻找欧洲信用,筛选在我们的估值模型上、或提供一个更好的替代我们已经拥有的美元计价问题 。

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