每日更新 - 从阿曼到墨西哥 The Daily Update - From Oman to Mexico

昨天阿曼出现了多期50亿美元的债券发行,其接近4倍的期限,与30年期的赎回收益率为6.549%,即使是Baa1评级信用(穆迪),也很容易看初为什么投资者渴望获得,就连我们自己也包括在内。这也就是说,我们仍可以看到准主权空间中最大的估值上升空间。

大多数准主权债券比其本身政府拥有更广泛的利差交易,加上全球准主权债务支付比其主权所有者多大约0.9%。这是对额外风险的额外补偿。这就是为什么多年来准主权一直是我们的焦点。尽管这些问题通常不是由政府明确保证,准主权的战略重要性意味着政府很有可能支持这些信贷。

由墨西哥政府100%所有的墨西哥石油公司(Pemex)是世界第八大石油生产国,仍是我们的优势持有人:例如,美元计价占有其 6.625%2035发行交易6.51%的收益率,交易值为信用缺口低估我们的估值模式5.5;相比之下,长期以美元计价的墨西哥国家4.6%2046的收益率为5%,这是我们的模式上交易〜2.5百分点。 墨西哥石油公司的债务没有明确由墨西哥政府保证,但生产者具有战略重要性,加上政府有支持和投注资本进入业务需要的历史记录。举例来说,政府在2016年注入15亿美元的股票来填补其养老年金负债的缺口,财政部最近发布了支持墨西哥石油公司的公开声明。穆迪(Moody)认为墨西哥石油公司具有“非常高支持的可能性”来看,这一点也不奇怪。

大量的批评指出墨西哥石油公司为低效率和糟糕的运作,这显示其是一个更弱势的独立信用配置文件和财务指标。然而,在新任首席执行场官河西‧安那亚( Jose Antonio Gonzalez Anaya)的领导下,通过成本削减计划和效率驱动下,墨西哥石油公司似乎实现整个价值链的盈利能力。该公司在2016年的净收入水平保持亏损(MXN-2960亿),但转向在营业收入水平的利润(3,040亿元),其在2015年大幅改善来支持2017年作为一个拐点。首席执行长预计墨西哥石油公司将在2019年或2020年恢复盈利。即使公司的债务水平较高,流动性状况不佳,但墨西哥石油公司已成功地进入债务市场,这使资金基础多样化,并延长了债务的平均期限。该公司预计2017年净负债将从2016年的23亿元人民币下降到2017年的15亿元人民币。这是很重要的,因为提高的举债是评级机构引用的观点之一。

令人鼓舞的是,公司在五年内第一次超越了他们的生产目标,在2016年,每天生产量为2,154,000桶。尽管如此,仍需要做很多工作来应对不断下降的生产情况;主要是由坎塔雷个(Cantarell)主要油田的下降。由勘探和资本支出方面来看,其战略是组建合资企业、开发新领域以及升级现有的设施。举例来说,与必和必拓在2016年12月签署了一项农场协议,用来开发一个价值110亿美元的创(Trion)领域。预计到2025年,创油田将每天生产为12万桶,虽然其2023年才会开始运作。BHP在深水盐下勘探和钻井方面具有专长,而农场结构在一个单独的基础上降低墨西哥石油公司的资本支出要求。

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