每日更新 - 德国大选The Daily Update - German election

法国总统选举一直占据新闻头条,因为佩内洛普门丑闻似乎压制了弗朗索瓦·菲永的机会,反而推动伊曼纽尔·马龙在第二轮决胜选举中成为马琳勒庞的可能竞选对手。但是即使在德国,选举很可能构成一场紧密的比赛,尽管德国选民直到2017年9月24日才投票因此现在这么说为时尚早。

安吉拉·默克尔(Angela Merkel),或者有时人们口中的“德国母亲”,正竞选第四任德国总理,并且鉴于保守党没有明显的继任者,这并不令人惊讶。直到面向难民的“开门”政策和2016年12月对柏林圣诞市场恐怖袭击之前,她的连任似乎是预料中的结局:德国经济表现良好,德国在欧洲保持主导地位。但是,基督教民主联盟党在一些区域选举中令人失望的表现以及对德国选择党限制移民人数政策的支持上升表明选民不满情绪上涨。

尽管面对公开批评,默克尔已经成功地获得联盟合作伙伴对这次选举的支持:要求每年允许20万移民上限的巴伐利亚基督教社会联盟(CSU)党的霍斯特·塞霍费尔(Hallst Seehofer),公开支持她的竞选。但是默克尔在投票中失去了势头。最近的福尔萨研究所的民意测验显示社会民主党(SPD)获得31%支持率,而默克尔的基督教民主联盟 /基督教社会联盟党为34%。有趣的是,在欧洲议会前负责人马丁·舒尔茨(Martin Schulz)1月份参与该党领导职务后,社会民主党支持率飞跃。此外,对总理直接投票的民意测验显示,默克尔支持率与马丁·舒尔茨(Martin Schulz)并驾齐驱,投票率均为37%。本周早些时候,国立应用科学学院通过《图片报》的民意调查表明,社会民主党实际上超过了基督教民主党,其支持率为31%,而默克尔的基督教民主联盟 / 基督教社会联盟支持率为30%。尽管如此,选举进程还处于初期阶段,马丁·舒尔茨能否保持起初的投票势态还有待观察。

马丁·舒尔茨的直率和社会民主党的价值观似乎正在获得德国选民基础的支持。这也许是有趣的,因为社会民主党是亲移民的,而这个因素导致默克尔的支持率减少。事实上,默克尔一直在关注公开反对移民政策的一些公众反应,她正在寻求执行更严格的庇护驱逐政策,在没有被驱逐出境的寻求庇护者作为攻击者引领市场攻击后,尤为如此。

如果社会民主党最终成为最大的党,那么其可以选择与绿党和极左派的左派政党合作,就像柏林地区选举中的情况一样,尽管他们必须克服一些重大的政策差异;例如,左派政党赞成激进的欧盟改革,北约解体,并且亲俄罗斯。较少争议的是其赞成福利预算扩张。因此,这种联盟在国家层面上实现似乎更加困难。如果他们获得重回议会所需的5%投票的话,自由民主党(FDP)可能是绿党的一个潜在联盟合作伙伴。但是,随着极右派政党在欧洲获得支持,较小的政党是否会获得足够的票数是值得怀疑的。因此,也可能出现另一个社会民主党 / 基督教民主联盟大联盟,但是由舒尔茨掌舵。

正如我们之前警告的那样,政治风险是目前欧洲市场走势的主要驱动因素,欧洲主权债券在2017年伊始表现糟糕。德国,法国和荷兰是债权国,但这些市场的信贷对我们避免风险的评估几乎没有价值。

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