质量至上 - 而不是数量 The Daily Update - It's all about quality, not quantity

正如一般读者所知道的,我们喜欢那些被〝低估〞的投资级债券;从而提供有吸引力的风险调整预期上之回报和充足缓冲的信用缺口;来反对任何不可预其的事件。我们还倾向于支持准国有控股,这些大体上是国有的,因此对政府具有战略重要性,并且利差远远大于主权曲线。为此,我们目前在所有投资组合中的主权和准主权敞口约为80%以上。

然而,我们喜好一些公司的问题;这里信用和利差垫的质量至关重要。 AAA级微软4.2%2035的持有可以当做一个例子,其当前是在美国国债(“UST”)交易115bps的位置上;反其类似AAA债券交易只在45bps之上。目前提供有吸引力的预期收益率和收益率在13%之上,搭配5.5个信用缓冲。我们计算债券的预期资本收益,是否达到公允价值,也就是超过10点。

本周有一些有趣的公司问题,其中有一些看起来相对有吸引力,而剩下的没有提供足够的利差垫。当前,科威特项目(KIPCO)是一个完美的例子。额定BBB-(比垃圾高一级)的10年期,目前正以4.75%的收益率来提供,这将是在大多数受欢迎的投资组合。然而,使用我们的专有相对价值模型,我们计算的预期收益率仅为2.6%,因为它只比同类证券交易多32bps。虽然我们过去一直是大型投资控股公司的长期持有人,加上科威特的执政家族间接拥有公司的大量股份,但这个问题在缓冲方面提供很少利差垫,信用保护甚至不到一个等级。

Ahli Bank卡塔尔银行,是今天市场上的另一个新发行价格超过UST + 163bps的公司,以同样评级的A2债券来看,这是相对有吸引力,,持续时间约4.5年贸易介于91bps。预期回报率和产量计算为6.6%,加上具有3.3个缺口保护。虽然这种债券比KIPCO债券和更高的信用评级提供了更多的信差,但是我们不会持有,因为我们目前选择不持有GCC银行,而Ahli是个小型的银行(〜3%的市场份额资产条件),加上很少或几乎没有保证的政府支持。

我们希望维持我们投资组合的信用质量等级在加权平均单一A,并继续搜索有价值的机会。我们在建立投资组合时避免承担任何不必要的风险,其中包括:进行充分的信用分析,以及避免“寻找收益率”的陷阱。

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