每日更新 - 俄罗斯天然气公司中国熊猫 The Daily Update - Russia Gazprom China pandas

上周末穆迪投资服务部将俄罗斯的前景提高到稳定的水平,并增加俄罗斯的战略,包含反映了一个雄心勃勃的财政整合战略,以及保守的支出和收入假设。俄罗斯经济部长马克·奥列斯金(Maxim Oreshkin)说:对“客观依据”有客观的依据。

穆迪指出,经济的改善以及财政整顿战略,应有助于减少国家对石油的依赖。这意味着所有三个主要机构现在已经证实,经过近两年的衰退经济正在稳定,这也是近二十年来最长的。经济部预计2017年增长率将达到2%,而其4%的通胀目标也在可接近范围内,其目前为4.7%。 为了改善采矿、农业和制造业数据都有助于改善前景,俄罗斯稳定油价以及预算每桶装40美元。

这消息使我们俄罗斯受益,虽然标准普尔和穆迪保持非投资级评级,但还没有升级的迹象; Fitch在俄罗斯经济和政治问题期间举行他们BBB投资分级的三个中唯一的一个。例如,我们将在2034年4月成立的俄罗斯天然气工业公司(Gazprom)持有8.625%的成交量的问题是以美元计价,加上现在价格约为130.75;相比美国国债曲线,价格是高出311个基点。如果我们利用惠誉评级,我们是三个机构中的较好的,这相当于一个价格来使债券2.4信用缺口便宜。我们的公允价值分布为203 bps,这为我们提供了回报加收益率15.7%。如果这种债券交易的公允价值扩大,它将在价格上拉回大约15点。

现在对于完全不同的东西来说;中国允许JPM和BNP在国内承保所谓的熊猫债券。熊猫债券由外国人发行进入中国国内债券市场。根据彭博数据表示,全球第三大企业票据市场的销售额去年增长了9%,来到9.2万亿元人民币(1.3万亿美元),而JPM和BNP都希望提高他们的团队利用相对便宜的资金中国国内市场对外国人看中国增长的业务。中国正在不断寻求放松管制和开放其国内市场的方法,尽管这种方式受到非常有限的控制,但这也证实他们希望在国内债券市场上有进一步的多样性。

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