每日更新 - 英国预算前兆和经济信号 The Daily Update - UK budget precursor and economic signals

由于明天是第一次英国脱欧后的预算财报,财政大臣菲利普·哈蒙德 (Philip Hammond)显然有很多优先事项,以及许多未知数来试试并且来改变 。为脱欧来做准备加上支持贫困的公共部门(如最近收到大量负面新闻的监狱和国家医疗体系NHS)将足够具有挑战性。在实现此目标的同时,“边消除赤字并取得稳步进展”将面临更大的挑战。然而,这是他所承诺的,也警告说,“仍然有一些声音呼吁大规模借款资助来给巨额支出。这种方法不仅令人困惑,而且对我们的年轻人来说是不可靠的、不可持续的和不公平的,因为他们将面临其后果。“对于每个英国公民来说,每人大约拥有2万6英镑公债是让人难以认同的。

值得庆幸的是,预算新的预测将为今年的国库提供约100亿英镑的额外资金,在未来4年内将提供约300亿至400亿英镑的额外资金。这应该提供一些空间来转缓;如果伴随的预算产生有效措施来提高生产力,税收调整将收入提高到拉佛曲线(Laffer curve),那么1.7亿英镑的公债聚集可能在几十年内开始衰退。但这显然取决于更广泛的经济层面,并且有越来越多脆弱性和减缓动力的迹象。

英国的最新警告信号是消费者的信心下降:这在一年的转折似乎拥有令人惊讶的前景。然而,家庭金钱和无担保债务下降,加上新车注册(同比少4.4%)和零售销售(同比增长2.6%,低于3个月前的8%)。所有这一切组合顯示脱欧的不确定性和较弱的英镑终于开发酵。不管明天任何未来的预算案,还是有许多未知数,所以任何人都难以预测提案的效果如何;但是幸运的是,英国有一个受人尊敬的政府、中央银行和独立的预算办公室,以及自己的货币。并不是所有的债务人都是如此幸运。

这是当前全球增长放缓环境下越来越大的挑战,以及其他负债国家和政府试图这样做的过多挑战。尽管英国的净外债只占国民生产毛额(GDP)的30%左右加上支出削减和借款成本降低,公共部门债务在过去5年仍然接近100%。很难想象其他国家债务的实际情况,其中债务比例比英国高得多,但却是通过人为措施和“临时”救助措施来维持债务。当来自债权人或债务负债较轻的地区的较高评级证券的优越收益率较高时,在我们认为不可持续负债净外债超过50%的GDP的国家中,对英国的吸引人的价值投资很少,加上实际上并是根本不存在的 。

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