每日更新 The Daily Update - Zero return for sharing in 2 years of Italian risks

在今天关于欧盟成员公共财政的报告中,欧盟委员会(the European Commission, EC)警告意大利将财政政策收紧至少占国内生产总值的0.2%或是面临制裁。这个目标是罗马在本月初所承诺的,但显然地,委员会尚未看到足够的进展。欧盟官员评论说“除非意大利正确地规范其承诺,否则下周将表示它并不符合债务规则”,意大利应该将其国内生产总值赤字减少0.5%、其国民生产总值每年债务减少3.6%,这个警告已经适包含相当大的宽容度。随着欧共体预测,直到四月罗马承诺为止,意大利的公共债务上升到令人不安的历史最高点,也就是今年的国内生产总值的133.3%,但还有待详细的措施。鉴于欧盟委员会对其他成员已经表示放松(相对于其严格的紧缩政策),像是希腊和葡萄牙,意大利似乎不可能被罚款,即时它不符合这个时间表,但5月的一个正式的谴责肯定是有可能性的,而且进一步增加对易受伤害意大利的负面情绪。

此外,报告还考虑了德国贸易顺差对欧盟的风险,预测德国今年的经常账户盈余将达到创纪录GDP的8.7%。尽管这个报告认为这是“没太超过”。欧洲委员会很难将目前的困境归咎于债权人,比如像是德国,尽管他们有更具竞争力欧元分享的明显优势。不仅如此,如今,德国国债两年期和美国国债之间的利差达到20年的高点,国债收益率跌破-0.92%,而国债收益率保持在1.22%以上。虽然(昨天)意大利2年债务实际上显示了0.04%的正回报率,我们认为意大利政府债务在曲线上并没提供投资者任何价值。

虽然意大利的公共财政状况比希腊等国家要好很多(因为自从进入欧元区之后,它实际上已经产生了一次初级盈余),而其外国净负债头寸还没有超过我国GDP允许水平的50%,并仍然与其他欧元区成员的命运交织在一起。因此,意大利的外国投资者还有其他的(不太可能,但不是不可能的)风险可能需要考虑,例如债务重组的可能性。不像希腊,它的大部分债务根据英国法律发行,只有2.5%的意大利债务是根据外国法律。因此,在离开/ 脱欧(Italexit)情况下,意大利可以应用Lex Monetae在其几乎所有的债券。因此,无论意大利是否在这种动荡债券持有人之下违约,仍然可能必须承担其新里拉债券任何潜在的外汇贬值(根据德国和意大利之间累积的通货膨胀差距,我们可以估计其在30%范围内的欧元)。

意大利政府债券拥有1.9万亿欧元,其中63%在国内持有(主要是金融业,占46%),23%在欧元区,加上14%在其他国际投资者手中。在接下来的几个月里,该地区出现了一些潜在的不利因素,包括法国选举、希腊救助僵局、意大利短缺,以及欧盟委员会报告所指出的法国,意大利,葡萄牙和其他欧盟成员国所存在的 “过度宏观经济失衡。那些持有BTPS的意大利公司可以考虑监测SENTIX指数,该指数衡量欧元区分拆的情绪,并与义大利脱欧(Italexit)关注有很高的0.9相关性;现在是21.3,并预计在月底回升。我们从边缘来监测这些指数, 选择投资在债权国内提供更好的价值和风险调整回报的债券。在未来2年的意大利风险中,实际零收益率不是我们认为有价值的投资。

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