每日更新 - 日本/俄罗斯天然气公司Gazprom The Daily Update - Japan Russia Gazprom

随着英国外交大臣鲍里斯·约翰逊取消访问莫斯科的计划,关注点转移到日本首相安倍晋三及其本月晚些时候的俄罗斯之行。据估计,此次访问非常重要的议谈项目是建设日俄天然气管道,来供应世界上最大的液化天然气进口国。

遗憾的是,俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司母公司GazpromPJSC对日本未来天然气需求以及新项目开支并不持乐观态度。大体来看,日本核反应堆容量正在逐步恢复(根据日本监管机构的信息,三个反应堆正在使用,42个可运行的反应堆中大约12个正在运行),加上日本对低成本煤炭进行能源高效利用,都削减了俄国进一步投资的热情。

最近,俄气副总裁亚历山大-梅德韦杰夫(Alexander Medvedev)在被问及日本时表示,“已经供应了该市场”,并补充说,“中国、印度、越南、孟加拉、巴基斯坦和科威特等国的消费者仍有较大需求,该项目需要对双方进行深入的可行性研究”。一条管道每年最多可运输20~30亿立方米天然气,相当于日本当前每年需求量的四分之一。

Gazprom PJSC是我们比较喜欢的俄罗斯企业之一,我们大量持有他们的特殊目的主体GAZ Capital SA的两支债券,一支用美元发行,另一支是最近用英镑发行的。Fitch将两支债券评为BBB级,但是穆迪和标准普尔给出了低一级的评级,为非投资等级,但两支在最近几个月都朝着较好的前景发展,一支表现稳定,另一支有所提高。

以美元发行的8.625% 2034债券每股价格约为131,收益率5.75%,低于美国国债收益曲线315个基本点。根据我们的相对价值模型(RVM),如果9.64年期债券回到公平价值,这相对于18.5%的预期收益率,包括一年期收益。

我们持有的英镑发行债券Gazprom 4.25%,于2024年4月到期,该债券在上月发行,超过英国国债收益曲线+342.3个基本点,价格为100。目前该债券出价100.50,收益率为4.15%,低于英国国债收益曲线345个基本点。由于最近英国国债市场复苏,差价有所扩大,但价格仍比发行时有所提高。我们通过RVM算出该债券的公平价值,与英国国债的差价有+209个基本点,如果该债券价格达到该差价,将会实现回报,包括约12%的年收益率,这对6年以下的债券来说是不错的回报。

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