每日更新 - 液化天然气LNG/卡塔尔/ Nakilat The Daily Update - LNG Qatar Nakilat

卡塔尔石油公司宣布重启对北方气田(North Field)南段的开发,实行12年的天然气田开采禁令宣告解除。据估计,该区将产量可达约20亿立方英尺/日,相当于每天可产出400,000桶石油。预计五年后可开始生产。

该气田是世界上最大的非伴生气田,与伊朗共有,卡塔尔称之为北方气田,伊朗称之为南帕尔斯气田(South Pars)。卡塔尔石油公司是世界上最大的液化天然气(LNG)出口商。近年来,卡塔尔每年生产约7700万吨LNG,而新气田开工后,如果全力提振能源开发,每年可增加1500万吨。

分析人士认为,未来二十年原油的需求量将下降,但对天然气的需求将不断增长。卡塔尔似乎要争做未来的天然气主要输出国。近年来,澳大利亚不断投资开发新气田,预计将在2019年成为主要输出国。而卡塔尔由于在过去12年里一直禁止开发新气田,已经处于落后位置。

这个新项目将让很多企业受益,其中就包括卡塔尔天然气运输公司Nakilat,它拥有世界上最大的LNG运输队,而且大部分都为该公司独有,不过也有合资所有的——67辆LNG油罐车和4辆LPG(液化石油气)运输船。

由于制冷系统和额外监控的需要,一辆LNG油罐车的成本是2亿美元,一辆原油气罐车的成本是1.2亿美元。Nakilat成立于2004年,2005年购入了头两辆LNG油罐车,该公司的发展一直非常惊人。

我们持有Nakilat的两支债券,都是2033年到期,都有预定的偿债基金结构,也就是说,他们会在债券到期前通过预定数额的票息逐步赎回债券。从2010年起,一支债券已经开始偿债,另一支从2021年开始。两支债券都采用分期偿还的方式,所以我们需要了解公司的日常运营来评估债券价值,因为要决定债券到期前的“公平价值”,除了票息流量,还要加入你收到的额外现金。概括来说,你会有本金、再投资、定期票息和复利等附加收入。

从根本上说,这两支都是便宜的债券,因为大量投资者和他们的系统对这个结构处理的不好。两支债券都进行了评级,一支被评为优先留置权(1st Lien),另一支被评为第二顺位留置权(2nd Lien),不同于信用评级的Aa3和A1。但根据我们的相对价值模型(RVM),两支债券提供接近12.5%的收益和回报率。

在波动期握紧你的Nakilats债券,因为一定的复杂度对投资组合是一种缓冲。

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