每日更新 - 美联储/NFP非农就业数据 The Daily Update - Fed NFP

周三晚上,我们通过联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)公布的3月15日会议记录了解到该机构最近的一些看法。记录中一些评论记录很有意思,例如:“一些参会者认为股价跟标准评估措施密切相关”,又如,“其他风险资产的价格,例如新兴市场股票、高收益企业债券和商业地产,在最近几个月也显著增加”。会议记录特别提到这些资产类别,说明美联储清晰意识到某些类别的价格过高。

会议记录也提高了加息问题。我们仍认为会继续加息,预测还将有两次加息,到今年年底或2018年年初,基金利率将提高到1.5%;我们也认为债券市场会全面价格下跌。

会议记录的观察者们更感兴趣的是FOMC对资产负债表的观点。有评论是这样记录的:“假设经济继续按预期发展,大部分参会者预期联邦资金利率逐步增加,并认为在今年晚些时候调整委员会的再投资政策是合适的。”

之前,市场期待所谓的“缩减对资产负债表的再投资”将列在明年而不是今年的计划中。我们的看法是,美联储倾向于让债券滚动起来,而不是正式出售证券,这将让市场提前了解。在一切条件相同的情况下,中央银行看上去更愿意在今年而不是2018年缩减再投资,一部分FOMC成员希望将缩减水平同既定基金利率目标保持一致,其他成员则希望依靠数据来决定。我们期望未来会议中能继续进行关于资产负债表的争论。

债券市场并未从周三早晨的水平发生多少改变,尽管资产定价“相对较高”的评论一出,股票市场(标普指数)就从+0.7%下降摇摆到-0.3%。

今天美国非农就业数据(NFP)发布,周三的ADP就业数据显示新增就业岗位+26.3万(市场数据为+18.5万),之后公布的PMI和ISM非制造业数据低于预期。ISM非制造业就业数据出现了自去年八月份以来的最低水平,成为四年来非制造业所付价格指数下降幅度最大的一次。大体上看,这有悖于周一发布的ISM和PMI制造业数据,考虑到服务业岗位占美国私人就业80%的份额,几乎任何人都会对NFP公布的数据有所猜测,而且更相信+18万的数字。

美国三月份非农就业岗位仅增加+9.8万,之前两个月的数据都下调了-3.8万,失业率下降到4.5%。平均小时费增长了0.2%,按年度计算增长了+2.7%,低于上月的2.8%。所以除了失业率,整体数据低于预期,在参与率保持63%不变的情况下,失业率的表现多少有些让人意外。

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