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今天发布的2月非农在职职工数显示:新增了235000个工作岗位,超过预期中200000个工作岗位,并且上一个月的在职职工数目由原来的11000人改为了238000人。由于这个冬季天气比较温和,建筑业的就业人数增长强劲,达到58000个,是2007年以来的最大增幅。而制造业也见证了28000个就业机会的强劲增长,是2013年8月以来的最大增幅。尽管由于更多的人找到了工作,就业率增长到了63%,失业率从1月份的4.8%下降到了4.7%。平均每小时工资同比增长2.8%,这与预期一致,同时数据修改后的1月份小时平均工资上涨了2.8% (同比增长2.5%)。

3月份市场完全处于折扣状态,联邦基金利率上调25个基点,之后进一步上涨。截至发稿时,美国财政部显示的数字几乎没变。关键问题是,通货膨胀发生在良性背景之下,美联储发布的数据高于曲线上数值。因此,我们仍然认为收益率曲线将维持平稳,且我们倾向于定位在收益率曲线的长端。如果美国经济数据点保持强劲,那么随着年度的进展,可能还会再增加两个25个基点。我们的专属模型表明,10年期美国国债收益率在〜2.60%,这一点已经折现。

如果没有关于唐纳德·特朗普政府政策的更多细节以及他会在国会上批准什么,很难预测美国未来的利率走势。特朗普在国会上的演讲并不能在这一点上提供什么帮助。此外,总是有一些意想不到的后果。欧洲央行并不喜欢美国的强劲增长以及更高的利率,因为这将给其增加压力来采取一种不太宽松的姿态,特别是如果德国的通货膨胀同比增长2.2%(初步估计)。这可能是一种危险的组合,因为欧洲债券将会在短期交易中产生负收益率。此外,法国和德国的选举带来了高度的政治风险。

在政治方面,我们希望以持续加权为长期目标,并一直寻求在曲线中部显示突出表现来管理我们的位置。尽管在欧洲有债权国,我们的模型缺乏价值,这是一个很容易被避免的风险。尽管目前水平显示,投资级信贷的利差不会明显收窄,我们仍然从定位被低估的信用中看到了一些机会,几个等级的信用评级和缓冲与贸易的吸引力正收益。

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